The deals boom seems to be on hold
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Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios
Global merger and acquisition activity is down 20% from this same period in 2024, with U.S. activity off 25%, while U.S. IPO proceeds are down 24% year-to-date.
Why it matters: This wasn't supposed to happen, with President Trump tossing out Biden-era regulations — and regulators — like cigarette butts on a country road.
- Dealmakers believed that Trump 2.0 would usher in a new era of certainty, having memory-holed the original installment's constant chaos.
- Or perhaps they really thought things would be different this time, that it was a bug instead of a feature.
- Either way, we're back to the only real certainty, which is that there never is any. No matter who's in the White House.
The big picture: Some dealmakers might be getting spooked by tariff-induced inflation fears, or weakening consumer confidence.
- Just for the sake of inconsistency, there also are a slew of reticent sellers who believe that the bull market has lots more runway; as evidenced by a recent mini-burst of hostile takeover bids.
Zoom in: And then there's the VC paradox that began long before Trump retook office, in which investors keep enabling their top unicorns to remain private. Even if it just makes some LPs scream louder into their pillows.
- Stripe has long been the poster child for this trend, but Anduril is coming on strong. The defense-tech giant, founded in 2017, reportedly is in talks to raise $2.5 billion in new funding at a $28 billion valuation.
- The deal makes sense for Anduril, which could use both the cash and repriced stock for acquisitions, but also reflects that the company didn't spend time in 2024 preparing for an early 2025 IPO. Despite the Trump win and the massive valuation run-up for comp Palantir.
- There's some chatter that more VC-backed startups will go public once Trump's SEC relaxes some disclosure requirements in areas like ESG, but that's marginal savings for multi-billion dollar businesses.
The bottom line: The animal spirits are hibernating.
