Next NOAA chief faces mounting challenges, including AI forecasts

Between the lines: The political landscape this time around is far more complex, with a greater appetite for drastic spending and headcount reductions, as well as a proposal that's kicked around Congress to make NOAA an independent agency.

• Jacobs has told Axios he would resist efforts to break up NOAA, as called for in Project 2025.
• Despite his involvement with Sharpiegate, Jacobs' selection is being viewed by many at the agency as a best-case scenario, given his knowledge of NOAA's work and advocacy for the agency.

Zoom in: Technology changes are rapidly outstripping the National Weather Service's ability to modernize, with AI-based forecast models proving capable of producing more accurate forecasts for specific applications.

• How to integrate AI modeling into NWS forecasters' suite of tools will be a key priority for NOAA, especially as human-caused climate change makes certain types of extreme weather events more severe and frequent.
• The agency can't simply replace its models and the systems it taps into from other forecasting centers with AI, experts told Axios. Instead, NWS needs to integrate AI into the tools its forecasters use, with its role growing in importance.

Advancing AI within NOAA requires working with the private sector and other public-sector agencies, well beyond striking technology demonstration deals.

• Jacobs, who has worked to advance weather modeling in the private sector and academia in addition to NOAA, may have the toolkit to pull off some of those arrangements.

The intrigue: NOAA's ocean observation networks — including buoys in the tropical Pacific known as Argo that help keep tabs on El Niño events — need updating and replacing.

• A broader system of marine observing stations also requires additional funding at a time when money is especially scarce.
• How the agency manages to continue to fund and conduct climate research is a big question facing the next NOAA leaders, considering Trump denies the reality of human-caused climate change, and Project 2025 called for broadly defunding such work.

What they're saying: "While 'climate' may become as toxic as DEI, weather tech applications will be where the action will be," with new partnership opportunities with the private sector, Paul Walsh, an expert on the economic impact of weather on consumers and industry, told Axios.

• Walsh — founder and managing director of G2 Weather Intelligence — also pointed out that brain drain is possible within NOAA, particularly among anyone conducting climate-related work.

• "From a workforce perspective, the biggest challenge will be dealing with a demoralized and anxious workforce," he said.
• "The impact of the uncertainty and fear unleashed by the new administration has to be devastating to the rank and file."

Friction point: Jacobs faced political pressure during his previous tenure, having been reprimanded for his role in the "Sharpiegate" scandal that began with Trump's alteration of a hurricane forecast map.

• Jacobs will have to regain the trust of some NOAA staff after the scandal, which violated the agency's scientific integrity policies.
• It's unclear what Elon Musk's government cost-cutting DOGE team wants to do with NOAA — but multiple NOAA sources told Axios DOGE representatives were seen at agency offices on Tuesday, seeking access to IT systems.
• There is also Project 2025's vision of breaking up NOAA and privatizing NWS — a proposal that Commerce secretary nominee Howard Lutnick also opposed in his confirmation hearing but that haunts many agency employees and alumni.

The bottom line: This is a turbulent time to lead NOAA, an agency that's typically far more low profile than it's likely to be going forward.