Gaza deal's future hangs on Trump-Netanyahu meeting
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People gather to protest against Benjamin Netanyahu's government, demanding the hostage and ceasefire deal to continue in Tel Aviv, Israel on Feb. 1, 2025. Photo: Mostafa Alkharouf/Anadolu via Getty Images
The future of the Gaza hostage-release and ceasefire deal is hanging on the outcome of a meeting between President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that is set to take place on Tuesday at the White House, three Israeli officials told Axios.
Why it matters: Netanyahu reluctantly agreed to move forward with the first phase of the deal between Israel and Hamas. Families of the hostages — and Israeli negotiators — are concerned he won't follow through to the second phase as he fights for political survival.
Israeli officials told Axios that Netanyahu is waiting to see where Trump stands on the second phase of the deal — which is supposed to lead to a permanent ceasefire, and a full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza — before he makes any decisions.
- Indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas on the second phase are supposed to begin Monday. But there's already a major gap: Hamas wants to end the war and stay in power in Gaza. Israel opposes ending the war as long as Hamas is still in power in Gaza.
- Netanyahu hopes he'll be able to influence Trump's thinking and convince him to endorse his plans for the war in Gaza, the officials said.
- One Israeli official said that if Netanyahu decides not to move toward the second phase of the deal, the implication could be at least another year of war in Gaza in an attempt to topple Hamas.
Driving the news: Israeli officials say the negotiations won't start on Monday, as outlined in the deal, because Netanyahu decided not to send the negotiations team to Doha before he meets with Trump on Tuesday.
- Netanyahu is expected to arrive in Washington on Sunday evening.
The Israeli Prime Minister's office said Netanyahu spoke on the phone with White House envoy Steve Witkoff on Saturday.
- "They agreed that the negotiations on the second stage of the hostages deal will begin at their meeting in Washington this Monday, the 16th day of the agreement, within the framework of which they will discuss the Israeli positions," the statement said.
- The office said that later in the week, Witkoff will speak with the Prime Minister of Qatar and the director of Egyptian intelligence, who are mediators in the negotiations.
- "He will then discuss with the Prime Minister steps to advance the negotiations, including dates for the departure of delegations to the talks," the prime minister's office said.
Behind the scenes: Netanyahu was supposed to hold a meeting on Saturday night with the heads of the negotiations team — Mossad director David Barnea, Shin Bet director Ronen Bar and Israeli Defense Forces Maj. Gen. Nitzan Alon.
- A senior Israeli official told Axios the negotiations team intended to present Netanyahu with a plan for beginning negotiations on the second phase of the deal, in an effort to push talks with Hamas in a positive direction.
- But shortly before the meeting was scheduled to begin, Netanyahu canceled it. He sent his military adviser, Maj. Gen. Roman Goffman, to notify the heads of the negotiation team that the prime minister decided not to send a delegation to Qatar at the moment, the Israeli official said.
- "Netanyahu made this decision without even holding a discussion with the negotiations team and hearing them out. He prefers not to do anything until the meeting with Trump," the official said.
Netanyahu's decision not to send the delegation to Qatar comes two days after he informed the heads of the negotiation team that his confidant, Minister for Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer, will take over as chief negotiator, two Israeli officials said.
- The officials said Netanyahu's reasoning was that the negotiations on the second phase of the deal are more political and strategic in nature, and are directly connected to the "day after" plan for Gaza that Dermer has been working on.
- Netanyahu said the negotiations will be conducted mainly with Witkoff, who is Dermer's counterpart.
But some Israeli officials think Netanyahu is trying to have full control over the negotiations, and marginalize the role of the heads of the security and intelligence services in the talks.
- A senior Israeli official said Barnea and Bar warned the prime minister that this change could harm the negotiations on the second phase of the deal, and emphasized that the talks are not with the U.S. but with Hamas through Qatar and Egypt.
What to watch: "The real serious negotiations over phase two will only begin after Bibi meets Trump," a senior Israeli official said. "Nothing meaningful will happen before that."
