What Octavia Butler saw on Feb. 1, 2025, three decades ago
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.

Photo illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photo: Malcolm Ali/WireImage via Getty Images
Science fiction writer Octavia Butler wrote in her 1993 novel "Parable of the Sower" that Feb. 1, 2025, would be a time of fires, violence, racism, addiction, climate change, social inequality and an authoritarian "President Donner."
- That day is today.
The big picture: This Black History Month, which begins this year on a day of Butler's dystopian vision, Axios will examine what the next 25 years may hold for Black Americans based on the progress in the first quarter of this century.
- Through her fiction, Butler foresaw U.S. society's direction and the potential for civil societies to collapse thanks to the weight of economic disparities and climate change — with blueprints for hope.
- Afrofuturist writers today interpret Butler's work as metaphorical warnings that appear to be coming true and a call to action.
State of play: This year, the month-long celebration of Black American accomplishments and perseverance will be commemorated amid uncertainty after the Trump administration ordered government agencies to end DEI policies.
- The move is confusing some agencies on whether Black history can even be acknowledged this year while the nation deals with rising hate crimes, the aftermath of California wildfires, a fentanyl epidemic and a new president who blames the country's ills on workforce diversity.
- Meanwhile, states like Alabama have passed bills limiting the discussion of race and Black history in public schools.
Zoom in: In "Parable of the Sower," the novel's 15-year-old protagonist, Lauren Olamina, writes a simple journal entry: Saturday, February 1, 2025: "We had a fire today. People worry so much about fire."
- What unfolds in the pages that follow is a dystopian world surrounding the gated, racially mixed, fictional community of Robledo, California.
- A new drug forces addicts to set fires to communities, who then rob and rape victims. Unhoused people roam the streets and are forced to steal to survive. Hurricanes, fires and violence push Americans to flee north to Canada.
- President Donner, like President Trump, promises to restore the country to its former glory.
- Racially mixed couples, like Olamina's Black/Chicano family, are vulnerable to attacks, and her parents, both PhD holders, have limited job opportunities.
Yes, but: Black, white, Latino and Asian Americans fall in love despite the racism outside the walls.
- They arm themselves and protect each other.
- They share history and books in defiance of attempted erasure.
What they're saying: "She was trying to warn us of a possible future that she saw coming if we did not change," Jesse Holland, editor of the anthology, "Captain America: The Shield of Sam Wilson," tells Axios.
- "With her predictions, we can see the awful visage of the future that is getting closer and closer every day."
- Holland said that includes the wildfires in California, the Trump administration moving away from Black History Month and the U.S. "seemingly not caring" about some of its citizens.
- "The hope in this is that we as a people in the United States have survived worse," Holland said. "We are a people of perseverance."
Zoom out: Butler often reminded readers she wasn't a prophet but part of a science fiction artist community asking "what ifs," Sheree Renée Thomas, author of the upcoming short story collection Mojorhythm, tells Axios.
- "She was looking at the racial dynamics and the class dynamics deepening and worsening over time. And she asked, 'If we don't solve any of these problems, what will society look like?"
The intrigue: Many scholars and readers believe the fictional community of Robledo is based on the actual community of racially mixed Altadena, California — a place leveled by the recent California wildfires.
- In the novel, Robledo is destroyed by a fire and then raided by scavengers and looters. So was Altadena.
- Butler is buried in Altadena. Her cemetery caught fire, but her resting place was spared.
