Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s confirmation is a coin toss

Here are some major takeaways from the hearings:

He's not declaring himself an entirely new man — on vaccines, on abortion or on many of his Democratic views.

Kennedy didn't deny several of his outlandish past statements, although he frequently tried to add context or explanation. He also began his testimony by saying that "news reports have claimed I am anti-vax or anti-industry. I am neither."

• But he refused to acknowledge that vaccines don't cause autism, saying only that he wouldn't take any preconceived notions into the office with him and would look at the data.
• The problem with that, as several senators pointed out, is that reams of studies have existed for years that find no link between vaccines and autism.

He also made no attempt to convince them he'd had a personal change of heart about abortion policies, saying repeatedly instead that he would implement President Trump's policies and that "every abortion is a tragedy."

• He didn't run away from other liberal positions, either, saying at one point that he and Trump have "agreed to disagree" on climate change.

Deference to Trump — both by Kennedy and GOP senators — may make none of that matter.

That's not to say Kennedy doesn't have any true fans, and he was vocally supported and praised by several GOP senators. Many on both sides of the aisle found points of agreement with him.

• But on abortion, one of his diciest issues, his repeated commitment to follow Trump's lead seemed to satisfy ardent anti-abortion members, although several Democrats did their best to remind those colleagues that Kennedy's personal values have been in stark contrast with their own.
• It's "great that my Republican colleagues are so open to voting for a pro-choice HHS secretary," Sen. Maggie Hassan, a New Hampshire Democrat, said at one point.

He's unfamiliar with the basics of how the federal health programs work.

This first became apparent during Louisiana Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy's first round of questioning on Wednesday, when he asked a series of Medicaid-related questions. Kennedy's answers contained factual errors about the program and suggested a lack of familiarity with federal health programs.

• Hassan then went in for the kill yesterday, asking him to explain what each of the four major parts of the Medicare program cover. Kennedy fumbled his responses.

If Kennedy is confirmed — or maybe even if he isn't — pharma is probably in trouble.

The hearings yielded very little information about what Kennedy would want to do as secretary outside of public health and vaccine policy. But he did have a few illuminating comments on drug pricing.

• In an exchange with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) about how much more the U.S. often pays for pharmaceuticals compared with other countries, Kennedy said that "we should end that disparity" and that he's spoken with Trump about it.

• He told Sen. John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.) that "I've spoken to President Trump about negotiations. He's absolutely committed to negotiating lower drug prices."
• And in a fiery back-and-forth with Sanders, Kennedy made clear his disdain for the pharmaceutical industry's influence in Washington.
• "Almost all the members of this panel — including yourself — are accepting millions of dollars from the pharmaceutical industry and protecting their interests," Kennedy said.

Where it stands: For the handful of senators truly on the fence about Kennedy's nomination, he may not have made the decision much easier for them. As a reminder, Kennedy can only lose three Republicans if every Democrat votes against him.

• At the end of yesterday's hearing, Cassidy told Kennedy that he is "struggling with your nomination."
• Does someone "who has spent decades criticizing vaccines and who is financially vested in finding fault with vaccines — can he change his attitudes and approach now that he'll have the most important position influencing vaccine policy in the United States?" Cassidy asked.
• "Will you continue what you have been, or will you overturn a new leaf at age 70?"

What the White House is saying: "After two days and over six hours of testimony in two Senate Committees, we are fully confident [Kennedy] will be confirmed by the U.S. Senate, 🇺🇸" confirmation spokesperson Katie Miller posted on X.

Almost everyone I talked to thinks this is ultimately going to be a nail-biter, including both Kennedy supporters and critics.

• If he is confirmed, it's also hard to predict which version of himself he'll bring to the job as the nation's top health official.