Trump's return-to-office push will likely lead to talent exodus
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The federal government will have a tougher time attracting and retaining talented employees now that President Trump has ordered workers back to the office full time, experts tell Axios.
Why it matters: That's likely the point. Trump's return-to-office executive order is part of a broader DOGE effort to cut the size of the bureaucracy.
- Finding new people to work for the federal government is clearly not a priority.
The big picture: It's been years now, but employers are still banging the drum on return to office. Now as the labor market slows — and businesses care less about hanging on to employees — they're starting to notch wins.
- 75% of workers with jobs that could be done remotely said their employer has put in-person mandates in place, according to a Pew Research survey conducted last fall and released last week. That's up from 63% in 2023.
Zoom out: Trump and DOGE head Elon Musk have telegraphed the return-to-office push for months, said Rob Sadow, CEO of Flex Index.
- The real momentum on going back to the office started with Amazon calling folks back last fall, Sadow said. He expects more companies to issue RTO announcements in the coming months. Some big employers like JPMorgan already have such programs underway.
- "The order signals at the government's endorsement of in-person work," said Lori Yue, a professor at Columbia Business School. "This could lend credibility to similar efforts in the private sector, especially among companies still deliberating over their workplace policies."
Between the lines: Return-to-office pushes can often be a way for companies (and governments) to do layoffs without technically having to fire anyone.
- For the Trump executive order, that appears to be the plan.
- "Requiring federal employees to come to the office five days a week would result in a wave of voluntary terminations that we welcome," Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, who is stepping down from DOGE, wrote last year in a Wall Street Journal opinion piece.
Republicans have been pushing for federal workers to go back to the office for some time.
- In a 60-page report out last year, Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) said, essentially, that those claiming to work remotely were "phoning it in."
Yes. but: The government has long been at a recruiting disadvantage to the private sector because the jobs pay less, and in the case of certain sectors, like technology, it's hard to lure people away from the West Coast to Washington.
- Remote work or, better yet, policies that let people work from anywhere, gave the government a hiring edge, Prithwiraj Choudhury, a professor at Harvard Business School, told Axios.
- A work-from-anywhere policy at the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office led to a 4.4% increase in productivity, per research he conducted. It also led to lower rates of attrition and helped the patent office attract and retain women.
- Remote work opportunities tend to attract more diverse talent, according to research on startup jobs released in 2023. That's also not a priority for the Trump administration.
What they're saying: "Without the flexibility option, it's going to be extremely hard for federal agencies to attract and retain talent," Choudhury said.
- The executive order "will lead to high quit rates, particularly amongst hot skill areas like IT," Stanford University economist Nicholas Bloom wrote on LinkedIn.
What's next: Trump's return-to-work order does leave some wiggle room, mandating the change to happen "as soon as practicable" and allowing for "exemptions" as department and agency heads deem necessary.
- Meanwhile, some unions that represent public-sector employees have negotiated telework arrangements in their contracts, as NPR pointed out. Those agreements would be hard to break.
