The deal market honeymoon needs a test

State of play: The deal market is in a honeymoon phase. Many recently-announced mergers were begun before the election, while some of the giant biotech ones were held to coincide with the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference.

• It's just too early to know if we're seeing precursors.

Zoom in: Biden's antitrust cops at the DOJ and FTC had a mixed enforcement record, but they successfully killed tons of potential deals in their cribs. Companies often decided that the benefits didn't justify the time and financial risks.

• Now we're hearing lots of happy talk from investment bankers.
• That will bring some companies to the M&A table, but a more substantial stimulus would come from the type of deal that no one would have dared try over the past few years. A buyer with both the courage of its convictions and just plain courage.
• Particularly if it comes from Big Tech, which has been trying to charm (and buy) its way into Trump's good graces.

The bottom line: It's time to hurl a canary down the coal-mine to see if it can survive.