Alcohol and beer deals may run dry

1. U.S. Surgeon General Vivek Murthy last week called on Congress to add warning labels to alcoholic beverages, similar to what's required for cigarettes, after numerous studies linked alcohol consumption with cancer. The headlines alone are headwinds, even if the warning labels aren't added.
2. GLP-1 use is surging, with the number of U.S. prescriptions rising around 10% last year. These drugs have been found to decrease alcohol consumption.
3. Teenagers are drinking much less than in the past, which could signal an erosion of future adult consumption. A recent study found that 42% of 12th graders used alcohol within the past year, which is down from 75% in the same survey from 1997.

Zoom in: All of this comes as U.S. booze deal activity already seems to have stagnated, whether that be for M&A, private equity, or venture capital.

• PitchBook data shows that dollar volume for all three peaked in 2021, but then declined sharply and haven't really recovered.

The bottom line: It's feeling like Dry January will get extended this year.