Window closing for Gaza hostage-ceasefire deal before Trump takes office

Between the lines: It isn't clear what Trump meant by "hell to pay." A source close to the president-elect said there is no plan for what to do if Trump's deadline is crossed.

• Some Israeli officials think that if a deal isn't struck, the incoming president could support Israeli measures that the Biden administration opposed, like limiting humanitarian aid for Palestinians in Gaza.
• U.S. and Israeli officials say Hamas' top military leader in Gaza — Mohammed Sinwar, the brother of slain Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar — doesn't seem to be deterred by Trump's threat.
• However one U.S. source with direct knowledge of the talks said there is still a likelihood of a deal in the next three weeks.

Threat level: U.S. and Israeli officials say that if negotiations don't bear fruit by Jan. 20, the transition to Trump would likely push talks back, possibly by several months. That could cost the lives of more hostages.

• 100 hostages are still held by Hamas in Gaza, among them seven Americans. Roughly half of the hostages are believed to be still alive, according to Israeli intelligence, including three Americans.

Driving the news: Israeli negotiators returned from Doha earlier this week after eight days of talks mediated by Qatar and Egypt didn't lead to a breakthrough.

• CIA director Bill Burns and White House Middle East adviser Brett McGurk, who were also in Doha for several days last week, returned to Washington skeptical about the chances of reaching a deal before Jan. 20.
• On Wednesday, Israel and Hamas traded accusations about who bears responsibility for the lack of progress.
• Hamas claimed that while it negotiated seriously, Israel presented unacceptable new demands.
• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu contended Hamas was lying and was in fact "reneging on understandings that have already been reached."

State of play: Israeli officials with direct knowledge of the talks said both sides are right.

• While some progress was made in Doha last week, fundamental issues are unresolved, such as whether any deal would involve an end to the war and an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.
• One Israeli official said the negotiations did not explode but are stuck, with both parties wanting to break the logjam but unwilling to make major concessions.

Behind the scenes: Netanyahu argued in meetings on Wednesday after the Israeli delegation returned from Doha that it is not clear with whom Israel is negotiating — Sinwar in Gaza, or the more pragmatic political representatives in Doha.

• "We don't know who really calls the shots," Netanyahu said, according to a person who attended one of those meetings.
• That source said Netanyahu emphasized that Sinwar refuses to provide the names of the hostages who are still alive and could be released in the first phase of the deal. That phase would cover women, men over 50, and others who are in bad medical condition.
• "I am not willing to enter into a deal without knowing what the deal is about and what I am getting," Netanyahu said, according to the source.

The other side: A Hamas official quoted by the Qatari website al-Araby al-Jadeed said Hamas is willing to provide a list of hostages but has struggled to contact all the different factions in Gaza who are holding them.

• The Hamas official stressed that would become easier once a ceasefire was in place, and denied any gaps exist between Hamas' military and political wings.

What's next: An Israeli official said that Netanyahu will consult with his negotiating team over the next few days about the path forward.