America's allies are in trouble
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Illustration: Lindsey Bailey/Axios
Some of America's closest allies are melting down politically and sputtering economically, even before President-elect Trump takes office promising tariffs and unpredictability.
The big picture: South Korea's president impeached, warnings of economic crisis in Germany, an unprecedented government collapse in France — and that was just last week.
- Most of the world's leading democracies are struggling with significantly slower economic growth and persistently higher inflation than the U.S.
- Those economic struggles are reverberating politically. Remarkably, the German and French governments crumbled within a single month. Ruling parties also got walloped in parliamentary elections this year in the U.K., Japan and South Korea.
Breaking it down: President Biden's 37% approval rating looks stratospheric compared to some of his peers, many of whom are unlikely to last much longer.
- South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol was impeached Saturday after his strange and shocking declaration of martial law.
- German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is unlikely to survive snap elections in February.
- Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's government is running on fumes ahead of elections next year.
Enter, Trump.
- After years of hand-wringing around the world about his potential return — the lack of commitment to NATO and Ukraine, sweeping tariff threats — he's now hardly the biggest challenge some key allies face.
Still, his return could exacerbate the existing crises.
- If Trump follows through on his promise to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, it could push all three North American trading partners close to — or even into — recession, a new analysis from Oxford Economics found.
- The European Union would also struggle to absorb additional tariffs, given the already sluggish growth in its economic powerhouses, France and Germany.
Zoom in: Europe may also have to figure out how to bear the primary burden for arming Ukraine — and how to ensure its own security — if Trump equivocates on NATO's mutual defense pledge.
- Ditto for South Korea and Japan. In his first term, Trump pushed both East Asian allies to pony up more cash if they want U.S. troops to remain on their territory.
- America's intelligence partners won't necessarily find picks like Pete Hegseth for secretary of defense and Tulsi Gabbard for director of national intelligence particularly reassuring.
The flip side: If you've lost a prime minister (like France) or have ousted your your president (like South Korea), you have less time to worry about who will be leading the Pentagon.
The bottom line: The U.S. is moving from "America is back" to "America first." But for the many crisis-stricken U.S. allies, America isn't the problem or the solution.
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