Global ad market to surpass $1 trillion for first time
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More than $1 trillion dollars in advertising will be transacted globally this year, according to a new forecast.
Why it matters: The quick adoption of AI by huge self-serve ad companies, like Meta and Google, has jolted the ad market.
Yes, but: That growth is highly concentrated among the ad giants, according to a year-end forecast from GroupM, one of the world's largest ad agencies.
- Google, Meta, TikTok owner ByteDance, Amazon and Alibaba are expected to earn more than half of all 2024 ad revenue.
By the numbers: Global ad revenue is expected to grow 9.5% to $1.04 trillion in 2024 — a new record, per GroupM.
Zoom in: Growth was supported by the continued rise of pure-play digital advertising, the industry's largest segment, said Kate Scott-Dawkins, GroupM's global president of business intelligence who authored the report.
- Pure-play digital advertising, which includes retail media, search and social media, is expected to account for 72.9% of total advertising in 2025 and 76.8% in 2029. The sector is expected to grow 12.4% this year and represent 7.2% of ad revenue in 2024, per GroupM.
- Digital channels continue to grow, whereas traditional mediums lose share. In 2025, streaming TV revenue is expected to grow 19.3% while linear TV declines by 3.4%.
Zoom out: This year was a more favorable environment for ad spending due to decent economic activity, the slowdown of inflation and media and tech innovations, said Vincent Létang, executive vice president, global market intelligence at Magna, another ad agency that released its own forecast.
- The growth comes after years of pandemic-driven volatility and slowed growth. GroupM's Scott-Dawkins said upside potential could come from AI-endemic advertisers and more marketing from companies pushing their AI products.
- GroupM's forecast also suggests that growth in the Chinese ad market — which kicked off in the back half of 2024 — could drive more momentum to the global ad market in 2025.
- That may impact U.S. growth, depending on the impact of President-elect Trump's proposed tariffs on Chinese imports. Other downside risks include fragmentation of global trade and geopolitical conflict.
What to watch: Global retail media revenue is expected to surpass total TV revenue for the first time in 2025, per GroupM. The sector is estimated to reach $176.9 billion and represent 15.9% of total advertising.
- GroupM stressed the need to rethink the categorization of retail media and other sectors given the convergence between them.
