Republicans suddenly feel good about the economy
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Republicans are feeling positive about the economy for the first time in four years, while the Democratic vibes have plunged, per new data from Morning Consult.
Why it matters: Consumer sentiment used to reflect current economic conditions, but for the past several years it's grown increasingly political.
- Put plainly, when your person is in the White House, or about to be, you feel good and hopeful about the economy. When you're on the outs, not so much.
How it works: Morning Consult measures sentiment by asking people questions about both current economic conditions (good or bad?) and their expectations for the future ( better or worse?).
By the numbers: Heading into the election, Republican consumer sentiment, as measured by the index, was at about 83 overall— any number under 100 indicates negativity. Now, a week post-Trump victory, it's at 107.5.
- Democrat sentiment heading into Election day was 116; now it's at 100.
- Overall sentiment (with everyone included) is higher, and is into positive territory for the first time since June 2021, as the GOP cheer offsets the Democratic gloom.
The big picture: Overall consumer sentiment had been trending up over the past month leading to Election Day, but it rose fairly quickly in the days since across many groups, as Republicans' expectations for the future improved.
- There were similar jumps in positivity across age groups and income levels, which track pretty closely with voting patterns.
- Notably, Black consumer sentiment fell from 114 to 109, though it's still positive territory.
Reality check: People's feelings about future financial conditions have risen notably. But their feelings about their present personal finances haven't changed much post-election — and overall remain negative.
- Sentiment also isn't entirely divorced from economic conditions; inflation has come down and the overall mood reflects that.
Flashback: In 2020, after President Biden was elected, the partisan sentiment switcheroo took a bit more time.
- GOP sentiment fell below 100 about a week after Election Day, a few days after it was called for Biden.
- The Democratic vibes only crossed into positive territory in late January 2021, perhaps over concerns about Trump not leaving the White House.
What to watch: The question now is, will positive feelings about the future translate into good feelings about the present?
