Measuring disinformation in elections is becoming outdated

The big picture: Foreign actors are constantly pushing false narratives in the United States, even if there isn't a specific timeline to pin it to.

• The day after the election last week, Russian operatives were still online and pushing lies, Mark Montgomery, senior director of the Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Axios.
• "We need to take a more extended view that sees this as a persistent campaign by our adversaries that we're fighting all the time," Montgomery said.

Between the lines: Despite plenty of warnings about foreign disinformation leading up to, on and after Election Day, not much out of the usual happened.

• "Overall, it was a nothing burger," Montgomery said. "But sometimes there's a nothing burger because people take a lot of action ahead of time, so don't discount that."
• But part of that is because most races of national significance were decided pretty much on election night or shortly after, Lisa Kaplan, CEO of disinformation detection startup Alethea, told Axios.

Yes, but: Both left- and right-leaning social media users are spreading conspiracies about the security of the 2024 election after reports of a drop-off in Democratic votes, the New York Times reported.

• Left-leaners believe this means some votes are missing, while the right-leaners see the number as proof that the 2020 election was actually stolen.

Reality check: U.S. voters were subjected to a "firehose" of election disinformation this election cycle, Jen Easterly, director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, told reporters during a briefing the day before Election Day.

• But state and local election officials — and federal agencies — were also debunking foreign-backed posts at a rapid speed.
• The FBI and CISA even released four separate statements in the 10 days leading up to Election Day identifying Russia-backed campaigns.
• AI-enabled tools did little to change voters' minds in 2024, but they did help promote propaganda that further entrenched partisan beliefs, according to new research from the Institute for Strategic Dialogue.

The intrigue: Increased government advisories, quick attributions, and clear communication helped officials avoid a repeat of the disinformation-fueled protests seen four years ago, Mark Lindeman, policy and strategy director at Verified Voting, told Axios.

• One example was when Milwaukee realized it had to recount about 31,000 absentee ballots in the middle of Election Day after officials noticed a mistake, he said.
• "They were sharing everything they had," Lindeman said. "They were nailing every point of crisis communication."

Zoom out: Experts say disinformation had less impact on this year's election because nation-states are constantly filling social media feeds with bot accounts and fake news stories.

• Former CISA director Chris Krebs noted on X that Election Day looked like "just another Tuesday on the internet."
• "Sure, there were Iranian, Chinese, and Russian attempts to influence and interfere, but that's baked in by now," he added.
• Just last month, Russia was amplifying and spreading false news stories and images about the impact of Hurricanes Helene and Milton and the federal government's response to it.