What to know about election threats
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Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios
Lies and propaganda about presidential candidates' stances, voting system security and the integrity of American democracy are multiplying ahead of Election Day.
Why it matters: Russia, China and Iran are peddling fake videos at a rate never seen before — and they're racking up likes and engagement on social media platforms.
The big picture: Election officials have stepped up their ability to publicly call out these videos, but it's unrealistic they'll be able to debunk every single one of them while administering a major election.
- Social media companies have also taken a hands-off approach to moderating election-related posts compared to the 2020 vote.
Threat level: Americans are experiencing a "fire hose of disinformation" this year, Jen Easterly, director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, told reporters on Monday.
What election narratives are foreign actors pushing?
Expect false tales of voters tampering with mail-in ballots, non-citizens casting ballots and hacks of election infrastructure in social media posts.
- Officials have already caught Russia peddling videos that showed someone ripping up mail-in ballots and Haitian migrants illegally voting in Georgia.
Zoom in: Researchers at NewsGuard said Friday they've seen a viral fake video of voting machines in Kentucky not allowing voters to select Donald Trump's name.
- Another video claimed Vice President Harris and her husband were paid $500,000 for tipping off P. Diddy about a federal raid of his home, according to NewsGuard.
Who will detect and flag election disinformation?
The short answer: It depends.
The big picture: Social media platforms historically have removed these videos or suspended users that peddle lies about the outcome of the U.S. election.
- But in 2024, the information environment is more scattered. Many platforms have implemented more relaxed content moderation rules or made cuts to their safety units.
Instead, state and local election officials are trying to fill the void.
- Georgia's secretary of state and election officials in Pennsylvania's Bucks County were the first to attribute two viral AI-generated videos to Russia.
How do I know my vote is safe?
State and local election officials, as well as federal agencies, have invested years of resources into testing the physical and digital security of election infrastructure.
- CISA estimates that the agency and election community have conducted close to 1,300 physical security assessments and more than 700 cybersecurity assessments since the beginning of 2023, according to a fact sheet shared with reporters.
- CISA has also hosted more than 500 trainings on election security and 200 tabletop exercises to prepare for various security incidents in that same time period.
Reality check: CISA Director Jen Easterly told reporters yesterday that there has never been a "more secure" election than this year's.
Between the lines: While a lot of disinformation will emphasize voting machines specifically, ballots and the information they carry actually pass through an intense chain of custody that's designed to catch abnormalities.
- Nearly 70% of registered voters live in jurisdictions that use hand-marked paper ballots for most voters. Machines usually only come into play when counting votes in some jurisdictions.
- And only a small group of authorized election workers has access to those vote tabulators and the data they store.
The intrigue: Nearly every vote cast leaves a paper trail — which makes it easier to audit and verify that ballots are being cast as directed.
- If a voter uses an electronic machine to cast their ballot, they usually receive a printed copy of their selections that they can verify before submitting their ballot.
The bottom line: Many localities give voters a way to track when their vote is cast, and state election officials are ready to answer any voter questions about how their ballot is cast.
- Verified Voting is part of the national, nonpartisan Election Protection coalition, which runs a hotline voters can call with any questions they have during the voting process, including those about registration, early voting and any obstacles they experience.
- The nonpartisan group Verified Voting has a hotline voters can call with any questions they have during the voting process, including those about registration, early voting and any obstacles they experience.
What do officials believe will come next?
The U.S. intelligence community and election security researchers have warned that foreign adversaries are going to step up their efforts in the days between Election Day and the inauguration in January.
- Expect more videos aimed at further upsetting supporters of a losing candidate and designed to incite violent protests, officials have said.
Editor's note: This story was updated to clarify that Verified Voting is part of the national, nonpartisan Election Protection coalition, which runs the voting hotline.
