Nov 6, 2024 - Business
One thing the prediction markets missed
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At no point before Election Day did the prediction markets give Donald Trump a greater than 43% chance of winning the popular vote. Indeed, in mid-August the chances of that happening were less than 20%.
Why it matters: Elections are often surprising — including Trump's first election win in 2016.
- In this case, although the race has yet to officially be called, the low-probability outcome (Trump becoming the first Republican to win the popular vote in 20 years) likely ended up happening.
Go deeper... Big red shock: Takeaways from Trump's election night romp
