Latinos face mixed prospects in congressional contests
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Latinos are in an uphill battle to keep seven of their congressional seats in Tuesday's election, but their number may rise via a crop of new candidates.
Why it matters: Latinos make up nearly 20% of the U.S. population but only 2% of all elected officials in the country, which limits their political power.
State of play: According to a report released this week by the UCLA Latino Policy and Politics Institute, the number of Latinos in local, state and federal elected office has doubled since 2000.
- Yet it remains low: 49 members of the U.S. House of Representatives and five members of the Senate are Latino.
- The majority of Latinos in the House (35) are Democrats.
Zoom in: The number of Latino senators could increase from five to seven in the next session with the candidacies of U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego and Bernie Moreno.
- Gallego, an Arizona Democrat, is polling well ahead of his GOP opponent, Kari Lake.
- Moreno, a Republican running in Ohio, is down against Democrat Sherrod Brown but within the margin of error, per the latest FiveThirtyEight polling.
- Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who is Cuban American, is facing a tough reelection effort against Democrat Colin Allred.
Zoom out: Other Latino incumbents facing tough reelection efforts are U.S. Reps. Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.), Mike Garcia (R-Calif.), Yadira Caraveo (D-Colo.), Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Ore.), Gabriel Vasquez (D-N.M.), Anthony D'Esposito (R-N.Y.) and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.), per an analysis by the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials.
- But there are five Latino non-incumbents who have strong chances of being elected to the House, most of them from California.
- 43 of the 48 Latinos already in the House are running for reelection, and 36 have "excellent" prospects, per NALEO.
- Though unlikely, the number of Latinos in the House could, per the analysis, jump to 50.
What they're saying: Because of the redistricting that happens every 10 years after a census, "2022 presented itself with new opportunities for Latinos to run in new districts across the country," says Arturo Vargas, CEO of the NALEO Educational Fund.
- Increasingly, Latinos are running in non-Latino majority districts, but there is still a lack of opportunities, Vargas says.
- An Axios review of U.S. House races this election identified at least 10 contests with Latino incumbents or challengers seeking seats in districts where Hispanics are not the majority.
- "We would love to see more Latino candidates be fielded by both political parties, and not just in Latino majority jurisdictions or districts, because that in itself sort of imposes a ceiling on the number of Latinos that can be elected."
The bottom line: Whatever happens on Tuesday, parties need to develop a "bench that includes Latino candidates," Vargas says.
- "You have to have Latino candidates ready to run when opportunities present themselves, and you cannot just start looking for candidates once you have a vacancy."
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