Scoop: Mike Johnson's cautious optimism on early voting
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House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and his data gurus are cautiously optimistic that they're banking more early votes than the Democrats this cycle.
Why it matters: Former President Trump has had a change of heart on early voting, and his supporters appear to be following his lead.
- Take Nevada's 3rd District. Four years ago, registered Democrats had returned more ballots than Republicans by a 10-percentage-point margin one week out. This year, Republicans are counting a 1% advantage, according to data shared by the NRCC. (Democrats won the seat in 2020 and 2022.)
- In 2020, in California's 47th District, Republicans went into the final week 15 percentage points down on returned ballots from registered partisans. This year, they are even. (They lost the seat in 2020.)
- In nearly every battleground district where the states provide a breakdown by partisan ID, Republicans like what they're seeing.
What they're saying: "The NRCC is fighting to get Republicans to bank their vote for Donald Trump and a Republican House majority, and that work is paying off," said National Republican Congressional Campaign Committee chairman Richard Hudson.
- "We are full speed ahead to get every Republican voter to the polls," Hudson said.
- "Celebrating incomplete data is kind of like spiking the football at the one-yard line. You didn't score anything — you actually just fumbled the football," DCCC spokesperson Viet Shelton told Axios.
- Democrats look at the early numbers and see reliable Republican voters and not a massive wave of new GOP votes.
Between the lines: Any story on early voting in the year 2024 is required to carry two massive asterisks.
- Early voting always "cannibalizes" Election Day voting. No one knows if diehard Republicans (or Democrats) are simply doing what they would do on Election Day: pull the lever for their candidate.
- Independents are an early voting mystery: Even if they are returning ballots early, the parties have no idea which way they are voting.
Zoom out: The pandemic changed voting behavior and rules, making it easier for Americans to vote earlier, either in person or by mail or drop box.
- There could be a landslide in those early independent ballots. We'll only know when everything is counted.
The bottom line: Early leads can vanish. So can late leads. Ask the Chicago Bears.
