U.S. gaining confidence ceasefire in Lebanon can be reached soon
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First responders battle flames following an Israeli airstrike in the industrial area of the southern Lebanese village of Abbasiyeh on Oct. 30, 2024. Photo: KWnat Haju/AFP via Getty Images
Negotiations for a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah have made significant progress in the last 24 hours but the Biden administration hasn't reached a final agreement with either Israel or Lebanon, two U.S. officials with direct knowledge of the issue said.
Why it matters: A ceasefire deal would stop more than a year of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah and significantly de-escalate the regional war in the Middle East for the first time since the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks on Israel.
- It would be a significant achievement for President Biden in his final months in office.
Driving the news: A U.S. official said Biden adviser Amos Hochstein's mediation trip to Beirut last week made progress towards a deal, especially around Hezbollah's willingness to cut a deal with Israel separate from the war in Gaza.
- The U.S. official said that since Hochstein returned intense negotiations with both Israel and Lebanon made more progress.
- "We are still negotiating but enough progress was made in the last 24 hours that justified President Biden sending Hochstein to Israel," the U.S. official said.
The latest: Hochstein traveled to Israel on Wednesday with the White House Middle East adviser Brett McGurk. Before leaving, Hochstein spoke to acting Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati.
- Mikati said in an interview on the Lebanese Al-Jadid television network that Hochstein told him "the situation today is better than yesterday."
- "We hope that within hours or in the coming days there will be a ceasefire. We hope to see Hochstein in Beirut by the end of the week," Mikati said.
- Cyprus President Nikos Christodoulides said after a meeting with Biden at the White House on Wednesday that he thinks a ceasefire deal in Lebanon can be reached "within a week or two weeks".
Zoom in: Israel's public broadcaster Kan published on Wednesday a draft of the ceasefire agreement dated Oct. 26.
- The draft agreement includes a commitment by both Israel and the Lebanese government to take steps towards full implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 that ended the 2006 war in Lebanon.
- According to the draft, the Lebanese army and UNIFIL would be the only armed groups deployed in southern Lebanon.
- The sale or supply of weapons and related materials would be permitted only to the Lebanese army and all arms production in Lebanon would be controlled by the Lebanese government.
- The Lebanese army would also have to monitor and enforce these conditions, and dismantle any military infrastructure that is not under the control of the Lebanese government.
The draft says the agreement would be implemented over a 60-day period. Israel would withdraw all its forces from Lebanon in phases no more than 7 days after the ceasefire is announced. The Lebanese army would deploy in southern Lebanon with the goal of reaching to 10,000 troops in the area.
- During the 60-day period, the Lebanese army would also dismantle and confiscate all non-state military infrastructure in southern Lebanon.
- According to the draft, Israel, Lebanon, the U.S. and other countries would also establish a monitoring and enforcement mechanism during this period to solve disputes and deal with alleged violations.
Behind the scenes: Israeli and U.S. officials said the U.S. agreed to give Israel a letter with a U.S. commitment to support Israeli military action in Lebanon in case there are violations of the agreement or threats by Hezbollah that the Lebanese army or UNIFIL don't address.
- The draft letter says the U.S. commits to appoint a senior U.S. military officer and a senior U.S. national security official to chair the monitoring mechanism.
- The draft letter also says the U.S. and Israel will share intelligence regarding suspected violations, including Hezbollah militia members joining the Lebanese military.
- According to the draft letter, the U.S. "recognizes" that Israel may choose to act against violations if the Lebanese military and UNIFIL failed to do so.
- The U.S. wants the letter to state that it would be consulted on any Israeli strike in Lebanon and that the attack would avoid civilian casualties to the maximum extent possible, according to the draft letter.
- According to the draft letter, Israeli flights over Lebanon would be for the purpose of intelligence only "and will not be visible to the naked eye to the degree possible" and would not break the sound barrier.
What they're saying: White House national Security Council spokesperson Sean Savett said the documents are drafts and "do not reflect the current state of negotiations."
- U.S. officials are concerned the leaked draft could complicate the negotiations and generate political pushback in Israel.
