Nothing's happening fast enough on climate, multiple reports say
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
Illustration: Maura Losch/Axios
'Tis the season for big new looks at how the low-carbon transition is faring.
Why it matters: Several reports show a world falling far short of Paris Agreement goals — and project where things are headed without course corrections.
- The findings illustrate the hurdles facing diplomats heading to major UN climate talks next month in Azerbaijan.
Driving the news: The "base case" in Wood Mackenzie's new long-term outlook sees 2.5°C† of warming above preindustrial levels — far off the Paris goal of under 2°C and ideally 1.5°C.
Threat level: It sees increasing risks of a "delayed transition case." It's a future marked by geopolitical crises that fragment trade and boost protectionism, which drives up tech costs.
- That, it said, would bring even more harms, with temperatures rising 3°C. It could have potentially catastrophic consequences and brings greater chances of passing certain so-called planetary tipping points.
- Woodmac's study out this morning sees $78 trillion in total investment needed for a 2°C-friendly future. Their "base case" projects $55T.
Meanwhile, a new UN analysis explores nations' non-binding emissions pledges (called "nationally determined contributions") through 2030.
- It finds that even if implemented, these pledges would only curb greenhouse gas emissions by 2.6% in 2030 compared to 2019 levels.
- That's obviously nowhere close to the steep declines needed for a Paris-friendly pathway.
What they're saying: "Greenhouse gas pollution at these levels will guarantee a human and economic trainwreck for every country, without exception," Simon Stiell, the top UN climate official, said in a statement alongside the report.
The intrigue: The latest UN findings Monday come as countries are writing their next Paris pledges that would run through 2035.
- Stiell used the latest report to urge aggressive commitments that are "backed up by substantive regulations, laws, and funding."
The big picture: These are the latest analyses to tell some version of the same story.
- Low-carbon energy growth has knocked the global emissions trajectory off some of the most catastrophic outcomes.
- Yet steep cuts consistent with Paris goals are nowhere in evidence.
Catch up quick: A major International Energy Agency report this month projects 2.4°C of warming without stronger policies.
- A separate UN analysis last week warned of stasis, not progress, on projected warming levels by 2100.
What we're watching: Dire warnings tend to surface right before the annual UN summits.
- But while they highlight the stakes, it's hard to conclude they translate directly into real-world national policy changes.
†For readers trained on Fahrenheit, you can translate those projected temperature increases to the American way by multiplying by 1.8.
