New economic data could aid Democrats' case in election

• This week they'll get three in a row.
• New readings on GDP, inflation and jobs are expected to paint the U.S. economy in a favorable light, giving Democrats fresh ammunition for their closing argument.

Driving the news: On Wednesday, the first print of GDP for the third quarter will show the economy expanded at a robust 3%, according to the consensus of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

• Then Thursday, a closely watched inflation measure is likely to show the lowest rate of price increases since early 2021, with 2.1% inflation in the 12 months that ended in September.
• And on Friday, the jobs report should show the lowest pre-election unemployment rate in 24 years — 4.1% in October, per forecasters. However, the pace of job growth is likely to be dragged down by Hurricanes Helene and Milton and the ongoing Boeing strike.

Flashback: Twelve years ago, the September jobless rate came in at 7.8%, a drop that gave then-President Obama a boost heading into Election Day.

• That led Republicans to claim the data release was cooked by nefarious "Chicago guys." (It wasn't.)

Zoom out: The economy remains a top issue for undecided voters, and Vice President Kamala Harris' advisers know they need to eat into former President Trump's lead on the economy to eke out a Nov. 5 victory.

• Harris has made some progress, according to recent polls, but voters still favor Trump on the economy.
• Government statistics agencies set their data release calendars long before the contours of an election are known.
• But the way things have lined up, this year there is an unusual confluence of major reports as voters head to the polls.

Zoom in: If the numbers come in roughly as analysts expect, it will be evidence of a stronger underlying U.S. economy than anticipated just a year ago — let alone two years ago, when recession predictions were widespread.

• Expect some victory laps from Biden officials. The president used last month's jobs report as an occasion to make a surprise appearance in the White House briefing room.
• The run of data comes amid a series of strong signs for the economic outlook, including excellent September jobs numbers and new International Monetary Fund forecasts that see the U.S. in line for the strongest growth among major rich economies.
• The Federal Reserve cut interest rates last month and is likely to do so again two days after the election, as its leaders have concluded inflation now looks well-contained.

• The S&P 500 reached a new high on Oct. 14 and closed Friday less than 1% below that record.

State of play: Biden administration officials view the results as vindication of their long-held view that inflation could be brought to heel without much pain in the job market.

Yes, but: Most economic data has been favorable for some time now, while consumer sentiment about the economy has remained stubbornly negative.

• And while a few positive headlines may be welcome for the Harris campaign, there's no reason to think they would be game-changers. Presidential elections don't often hinge on the latest reading of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index.
• Trump and his allies have tried to cast doubt on government economic data, which is prepared by apolitical agencies with rigorous protocols to ensure there's no meddling.

What we're watching: On numbers alone, this is the best economic backdrop for a presidential election since 2000.

• In October 2020, as Trump was running for re-election, the jobless rate was a pandemic-boosted 6.8%. In October 2016, it was 4.9%.
• The big exception: prices. The inflation rate is down, but prices for many goods and services have not returned to the levels they were before the 2021-2022 inflation spike.

The bottom line: High-profile economic data out this week is no election game-changer, but will — if analysts' forecasts are right — create a favorable backdrop for Harris' closing arguments.