Youth gender gap has doubled since the spring
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Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
The gender gap among young registered voters ages 18-29 has more than doubled since March, according to a new Harvard Youth Poll survey.
Why it matters: Political differences between men and women have become a defining issue this year. The new survey reflects how Vice President Harris' entry into the presidential race has particularly energized young women voters.
- And in an election this close, shifts in any voting group — even small ones — have the potential to decide the outcome.
Zoom in: The Harvard survey, conducted earlier this month, indicates that young men now favor Harris over former President Trump by 10 points. Among young women, Harris has a 30-point lead.
- That 20-point gap is up from the nine-point difference in March, when young men favored Biden over Trump by just two points and young women backed Biden by 11 points.
The big picture: Trump's enormous effort to attract persuadable young male voters is running into a major problem: Many of them don't plan to vote.
- Harris maintains a huge lead — 55%-38% — among young men who say they definitely will vote (charted above).
- Among men 18-29 who aren't sure they'll cast a ballot, Trump leads 37%-26%.
Between the lines: Among four groups of voters ages 18-29 — white men, white women, non-white men and non-white women — Harris picked up a sizable share of additional support in each group except non-white men.
- Biden held a 30-point lead over Trump in the spring with non-white men — a number that has fallen to 23.
- Harris has won a huge 34-point swing from non-white women over Biden's lead against Trump from the spring.
Reality check: Left-leaning young voters making up their minds could account for some of Harris' gains. The share that said they "don't know" has fallen dramatically since the spring.
Methodology: This poll was conducted Oct. 3-14, 2024, from a sample of 2,001 18 to 29-year-olds. The sample included 1,510 registered voters. The margin of error for the total sample is ±2.64%. For registered voters, it is ±3.05%.
