Voter signals

The crypto industry keeps checking with voters to see if their attitude about blockchains will show up in the ballot box.

Why it matters: This election is so, so close that anything that can nudge a voter to show up counts for something.

The latest: Today, the industry advocacy group Chamber of Digital Commerce released a poll with XandY Analytics of 1,004 adults, finding positive sentiment in both parties for candidates who want to update laws and regulations for the blockchain industry.

• 25% of Democrats and 21% of Republicans said that a candidate's stance on the industry could positively impact their decision to vote for them, according to the poll conducted Sept. 12–17.
• 16% of voters surveyed said they identified as part of the crypto voter bloc.

Separately, venture firm a16z has found search interest in crypto topics picking up in presidential election battlegrounds.

• In data across 2024 ending in September, it's seeing an increased search interest in the topic in the swing states, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.
• That said, Nevada and Arizona are losing interest, and Georgia's search is unchanged.

What we're watching: The real winner in 2024's marriage of crypto and politics this year has been prediction markets, led by Polymarket, which runs on a blockchain and uses stablecoins to fund its markets.

• But others have done well too, such as Kalshi, which has been winning its contest with U.S. regulators to run markets on elections (this year).

• Both those markets diverge from the polls just a bit, favoring Trump, while the polling-based models still favor Harris.

Yes, but: They are both still so close it barely matters which candidate is "ahead." If either says that one candidate has a 55% chance of winning, say, and the other wins, you can't really say that the model got it "wrong."

• A 45% chance of winning is still a pretty decent chance.