House GOP sees path through Rust Belt for keeping majority
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National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Richard Hudson speaks during Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, on July 18, 2024. (Photo by Jacek Boczarski/Anadolu via Getty Images)
House Republicans see a path to keeping their majority on Nov. 5 by picking up seats in the Rust Belt that they contend could help offset potential losses on the coast.
Why it matters: Political strategists have pointed to clusters of seats in New York and California as the key to which party will have a majority next year, but the National Republican Congressional Committee sees a window in Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania to keep control or grow their numbers.
Driving the news: The House GOP's campaign arm has been paying for ads in the Michigan districts held by Democratic Reps. Hillary Scholten, Elissa Slotkin, who is running for Senate, and Dan Kildee, who is retiring.
- The NRCC is also investing in the Pennsylvania districts held by Democrats Susan Wild, Matt Cartwright and Chris Deluzio, as well as Ohio Rep. Emilia Sykes's (D) district.
Zoom in: Congressional Leadership Fund, a group with ties to Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), similarly has ramped up spending by about $9 million in the past five weeks, according to a person familiar with the matter.
- CLF added $2.3 million in Lansing, Mich., bringing the total to almost $7 million for the open seat currently held by Slotkin, and $1.8M in Flint, Mich., bringing the total there $4 million in spending for the seat being vacated by Kildee — districts Democrats have said are two of their tightest races.
- Johnson's PAC also added $3.8M to its initial $5.4 million Philadelphia reserve for Wild's seat and is spending an additional $1.1 million in Toledo, Ohio, bringing their total to over $4 million in an attempt to unseat Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur.
What they're saying: "Holding the line on the coasts is how Republicans keep the House majority; Winning races in the Rust Belt is how Republicans expand the majority," one GOP operative said.
- The operative said former President Trump's appeal in the region could be boon for Republican House candidates there.
- CLF Spokeswoman Courtney Parella said in a statement that the group was focused on highlighting Democrats' failures "on key issues such as illegal immigration, fentanyl trafficking, and the rising cost of living," adding that they were "confident that voters will turn away from Democrats' extremism."
The other side: Democrats dismissed the GOP's bullishness in the region, arguing their spending strategy is flawed and taking out Democratic incumbents will be a heavy lift.
- Operatives noted Democrats have been outspending in a number of seats including Sykes'.
- "Republicans struck out recruiting candidates in Ohio, have massive fundraising disadvantages in Pennsylvania, and are running far-right extremists across the Heartland who would ban abortion nationwide," Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Aidan Johnson told Axios.
- "This is a last ditch effort to save face, and nobody is buying it."
Go deeper: Jeffries and Johnson plow cash into House "squinter" races
