Behind the Curtain: The Republican welfare state
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios
Republicans spent decades railing against welfare recipients. Now, they're deeply reliant on them to win elections.
Why it matters: The explosion of people getting 25% or more of their income from government aid — and Republican reliance on their votes — vividly explains the rise of former President Trump and the remaking of the Republican Party.
The big picture: Trump rose to power with the backing of the working class, then reoriented the party to focus on them as much as big business.
- This helps explain the massive surge in government spending under Trump, his continued opposition to trade agreements, his scorn for GOP ideas to gut Social Security and Medicare, and his us-vs.-them rhetoric.
Trump saw what establishment Republicans missed:
- Residents in more than half of America's counties (53%) drew a substantial share of their total income — more than a quarter — from the government in 2022, according to a new study, "The Great Transfer-mation," by the Economic Innovation Group, a bipartisan think tank.
- In 2000, that was the case in just 10% of counties.
Between the lines: When we told you about this study earlier this month, we noted that an aging population is one big reason.
Read this Wall Street Journal story, "Americans Are More Reliant Than Ever on Government Aid" (gift link), where we first saw the study, to go deeper. It's worthy of your time.
- The Smart Brevity version: Rural areas, in particular, grew dramatically dependent on everything from Medicaid to food programs as good, higher-paying jobs disappeared.
- Overwhelmingly, these counties vote Republican. The transfer payments are funded in part by taxpayers in rich blue areas.
The backstory: In the Reagan era, the term "welfare queen" depicted a fraudulent Black woman exploiting the system. Critics say this was a way to appeal to white voters by exploiting racial anxieties.
- Today, the narrative has changed, with some Republicans claiming white Americans are now victims of racism. These Republicans point to affirmative-action policies as evidence of discrimination.
What to watch: If Trump wins again, a big reason would be that this working-class coalition, which started out predominantly white, grew to include a large swath of non-college-educated Hispanics.
Axios' Russell Contreras contributed reporting.
