House "squinter" races
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With dreams of going big, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) are pouring millions into long-shot targets.
- 🔎 Call them "squinter races." They aren't sleeper races, given the spending. But when one party squints, they can see a path to victory.
Why it matters: The House majority will be decided in little more than two dozen toss-up races, but both sides crave the shot at a substantial majority.
- That creates a must-do: Pick off safe(er) seats on the other side, or at least make them spend big on defense.
🤑 The DCCC and the Jeffries-linked House Majority PAC have invested $21 million into flipping a half dozen GOP-held districts rated "lean" or "likely Republican" by Cook Political Report.
- The NRCC and Johnson's Congressional Leadership Fund have spent around $16.7 million on seven Democratic-held districts rated "lean" or "likely Democratic."
Driving the news: Two "squinters" recently came into focus for Democrats when Cook moved Iowa's 1st and 3rd districts from "lean Republican" to toss-up.
- The same happened for Republicans when Cook changed Virginia's 7th district from "lean Democrat" to a jump-ball.
- Democrats have poured $5.5 million into Iowa-1 and $2.1 million in Iowa-3, according to data from AdImpact. Republicans spent $1.8 million in Virginia-7.
Look for more ad buys: Democrats have plenty of cash to throw around.
- The DCCC last month added John Avlon and Whitney Fox, the challengers to Reps. Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.) and Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.), to their "Red to Blue" program. Both districts are rated "likely Republican."
— Andrew Solender and Hans Nichols
