Democratic fears emerge on Wisconsin Senate race

• Baldwin leads by just two points in internal Democratic polling, a source familiar with the campaign told Axios. That is much closer than what public polling has shown for months.
• Democrats are on pace to be outspent by Republicans in the state every week until Election Day, with an infusion of around $20 million from GOP sources.

The big picture: A Baldwin loss to Republican Eric Hovde would probably doom any chance Democrats have of holding on to their Senate majority.

• Montana's trouble for Democrats. Ohio and Michigan are toss-ups.
• But Wisconsin is supposed to be like Nevada and Arizona — a tight but safe-ish race, as long as nothing goes awry.

Multiple Democratic sources told Axios there are "alarm bells" ringing in the state, arguing the race is much tighter than what public polling has shown.

• A national Democratic strategist working on Senate campaigns pointed specifically to a recent poll from Marquette University, which showed Baldwin with a six-point lead. The race, the strategist said, is much closer than that.

Between the lines: Over the next month, Republicans in the state have a nearly $3.5 million spending advantage on the airwaves, according to a source familiar with ad buys in Wisconsin.

• A super PAC linked with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) is making a new $17 million investment in the state, along with Hovde making his own infusion of over $2 million.
• But Democrats have already spent over $100 million in the state this year, giving them an overall spending advantage since January of almost $30 million, according to AdImpact.