Oct 1, 2024 - Politics & Policy

Ted Cruz's Texas Senate race tightens to "lean Republican"

Justin Green

This is Ted Cruz — Photo: Jon Shapley/Houston Chronicle via Getty Images

The Texas Senate race between Sen. Ted Cruz (R) and Rep. Colin Allred (D) is now "lean Republican," after being rated as "likely Republican" for most of the 2024 election cycle.

Why it matters: Democrats won't concede the Montana Senate race, now rated "lean Republican." But if Sen. Jon Tester (D) loses there, the Democrats will lose the Senate majority unless they get a miracle win in a state like Texas.

🤠 Enter a ratings change. Cook Political Report said Tuesday that Texas is "lean Republican."
The "Lone Star state still remains tough for a Democrat, but [Democratic nominee Rep. Colin] Allred's fundraising/heavy ad spending, plus Cruz on defense on abortion + Cancun has tightened contest," Cook Political Report's Jessica Taylor posted.

Reality check: Sen. Ted Cruz losing in Texas would be a far bigger shocker than Sen. Jon Tester losing in Montana.

Cruz leads Allred by five percentage points in the RealClearPolitics polling average.
Tester trails GOP challenger Tim Sheehy by nearly six percentage points in the RCP polling average.

In 2018, Cruz beat then-Rep. Beto O'Rourke after an enormously high-profile midterm fight by 2.6% — or about 200,000 votes.

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Ted Cruz's Texas Senate race tightens to "lean Republican"

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