Claudia Sheinbaum, Mexico's first woman president, to be inaugurated
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President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo of Mexico during a press conference Sept. 17 in Mexico City. Photo: Jeannette Flores/ObturadorMX/Getty Images
Mexico on Tuesday is inaugurating its first woman president, Claudia Sheinbaum, a climate scientist who is facing surging violence, a major constitutional reform and maintaining a key relationship with the U.S.
Why it matters: Mexico is the U.S.' top trading partner — $807 billion worth of goods were exchanged both ways last year — and it's been a critical ally in stemming migration to the U.S.
Zoom in: Under a Sheinbaum presidency, the U.S. will likely see continued cooperation on migration, including massive efforts from the Mexican government to detain migrants at its border with Guatemala and elsewhere in the country — before people head to the U.S.
- This year alone, Mexico has detained more than 280,000 immigrants, according to NBC News.
But that cooperation could shift if Trump is elected in November, says Pamela Starr, USC professor of political science and international relations.
- Trump's promises of mass deportations would entail expelling people into Mexican territory, which would draw pushback because it'd overwhelm Mexico's capacity to manage the flow.
Zoom out: Sheinbaum, from the ruling Morena party, will be at the helm as the nation implements a new justice system reform pushed for by her predecessor and mentor, former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador. Critics say the reform undermines checks and balances.
- And she'll oversee a massive expansion of military power with the placement of the National Guard — initially conceived as a national police force — under the command of the military, which has sparked backlash over concerns about over-militarization.
- López Obrador, who pushed for the change, says empowering the National Guard will help stave off cartels, who in the last two weeks have been embroiled in a battle over territory in Sinaloa state that has left dozens dead and forced schools to close for days.
What they're saying: "We'll need to see how handing (the National Guard) control over security and policing pans out,"says Laura Nelly Medellín, a professor and researcher at the Autonomous University of Nuevo León.
- "Especially as we continue to see criminal groups hold swaths of territory or fight to control them through deadly shootouts, which we've seen can't be fully solved by just deploying more armed forces to the area," she adds.
The bottom line: Sheinbaum "is more pragmatic and less ideological than López Obrador, but she'll also be limited by his list of to-dos," Starr says.
- Starr points out Sheinbaum has shown — especially when she headed the Mexico City government — that she is more open to cooperate with the private sector and neighboring countries for issues like nearshoring and clean energy investments.
- The latter is among Sheinbaum's interests given her background as a scientist who has worked on sustainable development issues.
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