Half of registered voters say they will submit ballots early: Poll
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Absentee ballots are prepared to be mailed at the Wake County Board of Elections on Sept. 17 in Raleigh, N.C. Photo: Allison Joyce/Getty Images
Half of registered voters plan to vote early in November's presidential election either by mail or in person, per a September NBC News poll.
Why it matters: With a large portion of votes set to be cast ahead of Election Day, time is running out for Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump to make their case to voters in a tight race that could take days to call.
- Harris holds an edge over Trump among early voters 61% to 35%, according to the poll.
The big picture: Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents have embraced mail-in and early voting in recent election cycles.
- However, the Republican National Committee is trying to catch up and counter the stigma, popularized by Trump and other GOP leaders, that mail-in and early voting can be illegitimate.
By the numbers: 51% of registered voters said they'd vote early this fall, per the NBC News poll.
- Trump leads Harris 57% to 37% among voters who plan to vote on Election Day.
State of play: Trump and GOP committees have been scrambling to relay to voters that voting by mail is safe and secure, Axios' Alex Thompson reported.
- During the 2020 election, Trump questioned the results of mail-in votes.
- Trump's messaging on early voting has been at odds this campaign. He regularly disregards early voting and mail-in ballots as fair aspects of the election in rallies and interviews, but he's posted videos to Truth Social in support of both.
What they're saying: "Either the margin has to close among [those] voting early, or Republican margins on Election Day have to be bigger than this to win," said Republican pollster Bill McInturff, who conducted the poll with Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates for NBC News.
- "When counties and states release the early ballots and the early votes, they're going to be overwhelmingly Democratic," Mark Murray, NBC News senior political editor, said in an interview on the network's streaming program "NBC News NOW."
- "When they release the Election Day ballots, they might be overwhelmingly Republican," Murray said.
Between the lines: Mail-in voting has become more popular since the pandemic, but officials warned this month that ongoing issues with the postal service could disenfranchise some voters, Axios' Ivana Saric reported.
- In NBC News and Wall Street Journal polls in 2012 and 2016, majorities of voters said they planned to vote on Election Day, per NBC.
- In those polls, Democrats held smaller leads with early voters. Former President Barack Obama led by 8 points in 2012 with early voters, and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton led by 14 points in 2016.
- In 2020, 68% of voters said they'd vote early.
Go deeper:
- How, when to register to vote for presidential election
- Early voting begins
- 2020 déjà vu: Why the 2024 election could take days to call
Methodology: Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies surveyed 1,000 registered voters, including 870 respondents interviewed via cellphone from Sept. 13 to 17. The margin of error is ±3.10%.
