U.S. warns Netanyahu against starting a war in Lebanon
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Smoke billows from the site of an Israeli strike on the southern Lebanese village of Taybeh on Sept. 16, 2024, amid ongoing cross-border clashes between Israeli troops and Lebanon's Hezbollah fighters. Photo: Ammar Ammar/AFP via Getty Image
A senior Biden adviser, Amos Hochstein, cautioned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday against initiating a wider war against Lebanon, three sources familiar with the meetings told Axios.
Why it matters: Hochstein's message came as the Israeli military and security cabinet have been ramping up preparations for a war against Hezbollah in Lebanon, which they hope would allow tens of thousands of displaced Israelis to return home.
Driving the news: Exchanges of fire on the Israel-Lebanon border, which started when Hezbollah attacked Israel on Oct. 8, have been consistently escalating.
- Israeli and U.S. officials hoped a hostage and ceasefire deal in Gaza would calm down the northern border, too. But in the absence of such a deal, the fear of an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah has significantly increased over the last two weeks.
- The Israeli security cabinet voted on Tuesday to update the goals of the nearly yearlong war to include the safe return of displaced Israelis to their homes on the border with Lebanon. "Israel will continue to act to implement this goal," the Prime Minister's office said.
State of play: Hochstein landed right in the middle of a political crisis in Israel. Netanyahu is considering whether to fire defense minister Yoav Gallant, who has been a key partner to the Biden administration.
- Netanyahu has wanted to fire Gallant for months over their bad personal relations and deep policy disagreements, and has been looking for a good timing to do it.
- According to Israeli press reports, Netanyahu has been secretly negotiating in recent days with one of his staunchest political rivals, former minister Gideon Saar, to replace Gallant.
- Ultra-Orthodox parties have threatened to topple Netanyahu's coalition if he doesn't pass a bill the exempts Yeshiva students from military service. Gallant opposes that bill.
- A U.S. official told me "it would be crazy" of Netanyahu to fire an experienced minister of defense like Gallant amid a war in Gaza and as Israel might be heading towards a possible all out war in Lebanon
Behind the scenes: Two sources familiar with Hoschtein's meetings said the U.S. envoy emphasized to Netanyahu and Gallant that the U.S. does not believe a broader conflict in Lebanon will achieve the goal of returning displaced Israelis to their homes in the north.
- Hochstein said an all-out war with Hezbollah risks a much broader and protracted regional conflict, the sources said.
- The U.S. envoy made clear to Netanyahu and Gallant that the U.S. remains committed to a diplomatic resolution in Lebanon, "either together with a Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal or on its own," the sources said.
The other side: Netanyahu told Hochstein that it would not be possible to return displaced Israelis to their homes without a fundamental change in the security situation on the border with Lebanon, according to the Prime Minister's office.
- "Israel appreciates and respects the support of the Biden administration, but in the end it will do what is necessary to maintain its security and return the residents of the north to their homes safely," Netanyahu told Hochstein, according to a statement.
- Gallant told Hochstein that the possibility of a diplomatic solution to the situation on the northern border "has passed because Hezbollah continues to tie itself to Hamas and refuses to end the conflict," the ministry of defense said.
- "Therefore - the only way left to return the residents of the north to their homes, will be through military action," Gallant told the American envoy.
Editor's note: This story has been updated with the result of the Israeli security cabinet's vote on Tuesday.
