The drivers of EV adoption
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U.S. drivers won't switch to an EV until it's cheaper and easier than driving a gasoline vehicle. In some countries, that's already happened.
Why it matters: American drivers who log a lot of miles still generally drive gas-powered cars, especially for long-distance trips.
- Judging by the experience in other countries, the rate at which that changes will depend on gas prices, electricity prices, and the broad availability of charging stations.
The big picture: In countries like China and Norway, electric vehicles travel far more miles than gasoline vehicles.
- High-mileage drivers, including ride-share drivers, have switched to EVs faster than the general population.
- In China, for example, 87% of new taxis and ride-share vehicles last year were EVs, according to BloombergNEF research.
Between the lines: Chinese electricity is cheaper than electricity in the U.S. — but gasoline is more expensive. So the per-mile savings for switching to an EV are much greater.
- Plug-in company cars in China are also eligible for tax incentives and avoid certain road-use taxes that apply to gasoline cars.
- Plus, charging stations are readily available.
Where it stands: In the U.S., EVs comprise roughly 8% of new car sales.
- As long as gas prices remain low and EVs are expensive, there's not a huge incentive for drivers to switch to an EV, especially when charging infrastructure is still spotty.
- Even though the driving range of most EVs has improved, American drivers worry about where to charge their cars.
- In the U.S., EVs rack up about 40% fewer miles than gasoline cars, according to a 2023 study by George Washington University.
Zoom in: For many early adopters in the U.S., an EV is a second car in the driveway.
- They like zipping around town in an EV, but when they're going on a long trip, they opt for their trusted gas car.
The intrigue: The EV market is more mature in California than it is in the rest of America — and in California, the average EV drives more miles than the average gas-powered vehicle.
- About 25% of new car sales are EVs in California, which is closer to the level of EV adoption in Europe.
- California has higher incomes, and a population of early adopters, but also it has much higher gas prices than the rest of the country — making for large savings from switching to electric.
- "With higher rates of EV adoption, it's more and more likely to be the primary car doing the driving, whereas in the early stages, it's the second or third car," Colin Mckerracher, head of Clean Transport at BloombergNEF, tells Axios.
The bottom line: If America follows California's lead then that would help the U.S. catch up to the rest of the world in EV mileage.
- The rest of America wouldn't be happy about paying Californian gas prices, which currently average $4.76 per gallon, a 47% premium over the country as a whole. But maybe that's exactly what would get them to switch to EVs.
