GOP rebellion puts Mike Johnson's spending plan on notice
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House Speaker Mike Johnson is on notice he might have to abort his government funding plan.
Why it matters: Johnson has the most at stake if he quickly folds ahead of the Oct. 1 government funding deadline, so he's girding for a tough fight.
- At least five GOP lawmakers have indicated they are opposed to Johnson's six-month spending plan.
- "I've made it clear to [leadership] that I'll be a 'no' on the CR," said Rep. Cory Mills (R-Fla.).
- "No one should worry — I believe we can get this job done," Johnson told Axios' Juliegrace Brufke shortly after arriving at the Capitol today.
But going into Tuesday, Johnson is on course to lose on both GOP priorities for a funding stopgap. Democratic leaders are in no mood to help.
1) The SAVE Act: Johnson's proposal to attach a bill requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote looks like it's in danger.
- Axios has asked the five House Democrats who voted for the SAVE Act earlier this year how they plan to vote this time.
- House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries made clear he views the SAVE Act as a "poison pill" that violates a past spending agreement with Republicans, a source told Axios' Andew Solender.
2) How long to stopgap: Democrats are trying to stay united against Johnson's push to extend government stopgap funding into March 2025, when Republicans could control the Senate.
The big picture: We won't have a shutdown if ...
- The SAVE Act fails in the House, making it easier for Johnson and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer to only negotiate over timing.
- House GOP frontliners show Johnson their teeth: "We don't know what Plan B and Plan C, what step two, step three, are," Biden-district Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Calif.) told Punchbowl News (membership required).
- Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell helps Schumer get Republican votes to pass a clean stopgap on the agreed timeline.
- Defense hawks win out: Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.), vying to succeed McConnell as GOP leader, told Axios' Stef Kight that leaving defense spending on "autopilot" for six months could be "problematic."
We'll have a shutdown if ...
- The SAVE Act passes the House and GOP hardliners persuade Johnson he should fear them more than a shutdown.
- Former President Trump wades in with demands on the SAVE Act, forcing Senate GOP leaders to play ball. Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) is a vocal supporter. Thune and Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) — also vying to succeed McConnell — have signed on but are unlikely to support a shutdown over it.
Axios' Juliegrace Brufke, Andrew Solender, and Stef Kight contributed to this story.
