Biden's goal: Gaza deal by the end of next week
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Palestinians in Khan Yunis, Gaza on Aug. 12, 2024 after the Israeli army issued an evacuation warning. Photo: Ashraf Amra/Anadolu via Getty Images
President Biden is aiming to get a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal by the end of next week while also trying to deter Iran and Hezbollah from conducting an attack on Israel that could undermine this effort, U.S. officials say.
Why it matters: Biden and his aides say they feel they are closer than ever to getting a deal that could lead to the release of hostages being held by Hamas in Gaza, including American citizens, and end 10 months of war that has killed more than 1,600 Israelis and 40,000 Palestinians.
- "I'm optimistic. It's far from over. Just a couple more issues. I think we've got a shot," Biden told reporters on Friday.
Driving the news: On Friday at the end of a two-day summit in Doha, the U.S. presented a new proposal to Israel and Hamas in an effort to close the remaining gaps and reach a deal.
- A U.S. official said the proposal bridges nearly all of the remaining gaps that have been under discussion for the past six weeks.
Zoom in: Among other outstanding issues, the new proposal tries to address the disagreement about the list of hostages to be released, the sequence in which they would be released and the list of Palestinian prisoners who will be released for every hostage.
- An Israeli official said Israel agreed to decrease the number of Palestinian prisoners whose release they can veto in return for increasing the number of hostages who will be released every week during the first phase of the deal, which would last six weeks.
- "We think the package is basically there ready to be implemented," a U.S. official said.
Shortly after the summit in Doha wrapped up on Friday, Biden called the Emir of Qatar and the President of Egypt to discuss the proposal and the plan for the coming days, the White House said.
- "There was a consensus between all three leaders that this process is now in the end game," a senior U.S. official said.
- The U.S. official admitted the deal is not perfect, but said it is the best deal possible at the moment that will get the hostages out, bring relief to the people of Gaza and decrease the risk of regional war.
- "If you continue negotiating for months and months and try to get a perfect deal, or every last drop of blood from the stone, you risk having no hostages left to save," the U.S. official said.
Behind the scenes: The talks in Doha involved CIA director Bill Burns, President Biden's top Middle East adviser Brett McGurk, the Prime Minister of Qatar Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Egyptian spy chief Abbas Kemel and an Israeli delegation headed by Mossad director David Barnea, the head of Shin Bet Ronen Bar and the commander of the Israel Defense Forces hostages unit, Gen.Nitzan Alon.
- A senior U.S. official said that unlike past rounds of talks, the Israeli team was "empowered" by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to negotiate in real-time with more autonomy.
- Throughout the two days of talks, senior officials from Qatar and Egypt engaged every few hours with Hamas representatives in Doha to brief them on the Israeli positions.
- Both U.S. and Israeli officials told Axios there was significant progress made during the negotiations in Doha on all of the remaining issues.
But a senior Israeli official said most of this progress was done between Israel and the U.S., Qatari and Egyptian mediators and it is unclear if Hamas agrees.
- Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, who is hiding in Gaza, still hasn't received a full readout and given an answer, the Israeli official said.
The other side: Hamas official Ghazi Hamad, who is close to Sinwar, told Al-Mayadeen television on Friday that none of the remaining gaps were closed during the talks in Doha.
- Hamad claimed Netanyahu is trying to buy time and called on the U.S. and the other mediators to press Israel.
- A U.S. official said the positions Hamas representatives presented to the Egyptian and Qatari mediators over the two-day talks were more constructive than their public comments.
- "Hamas is under tremendous pressure," the U.S. official said.
The big picture: Iran didn't participate in the talks in Doha, but its threat to attack Israel in retaliation for the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran loomed over the negotiations.
- The Qatari prime minister spoke twice in the last two days with his Iranian counterpart to keep him updated and urge the Iranians not to take any steps that could sabotage the diplomatic efforts to get a deal.
The threat of an Iranian attack on Israel was front and center in the phone calls Biden had with the Emir of Qatar and the president of Egypt on Friday.
- Biden made clear to both that should an attack occur, the consequences for the region — and in particular for Iran — would be "serious and cataclysmic," a U.S. official said.
- Biden said that with the ceasefire and hostage deal now in sight, "no one in the region should take actions to undermine this process."
- "The Iranians claimed during their talks with the Qataris that they want to see a ceasefire in Gaza and a de-escalation of tensions. Now is an opportunity to put their money where their mouth is and to basically work towards the conclusion of this over the coming week," a U.S. official said.
What's next: The coming days are going to involve intense diplomacy to try to hammer out the final details.
- Experts from the U.S., Egypt, Qatar and Israel stayed in Qatar and will continue to work on the hostage and prisoner exchange implementation and other issues, U.S. and Israeli officials said.
- Secretary of State Antony Blinken will land in Israel on Sunday. He will meet Netanyahu on Monday and discuss some of the remaining issues.
- On Sunday, experts from Israel, the U.S. and Egypt will meet in Cairo to try to conclude a deal on the security arrangements along the Philadelphi corridor on the Gaza-Egypt border and the re-opening of the Rafah crossing — two issues that are critical for the implementation of the deal.
- Another negotiations summit is expected to convene in Cairo on Wednesday with the aim of finishing it with a deal.
