Aug 13, 2024 - Politics & Policy
Harris' twin edges
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Vice President Kamala Harris is heading into the DNC doing better than President Biden in the Rust Belt, and now she has extra help in the Sun Belt.
- Why it matters: Harris isn't just outperforming expectations. She's growing her overall lead against former President Trump, election guru Nate Silver wrote today.
Edge #1: Harris is narrowly leading Trump in the polling averages of the "Blue Wall" states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, Axios' Erin Doherty reports.
- She's outperforming Biden's last polling vs. Trump by roughly six percentage points in each of the three states.
Edge #2: Abortion referendums are now on the ballot in Nevada and Arizona.
- The abortion rights side has won every time it's been on the ballot since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022.
- Now abortion rights supporters are counting on the referendums to juice turnout, to the benefit of Harris and vulnerable Democratic Senate campaigns in both states.
The bottom line: Harris might need to improve even more to win.
- Trump outperformed the Rust Belt polls by nine points compared to this time in 2016, and five points as of this date in 2020, as CNN's Harry Enten pointed out today.
