Venezuela's sham election collides with U.S. campaign
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Maduro after declaring victory. Photo: Alfredo Lasry R/Getty Images
Venezuela's outsized role in U.S. politics is poised to grow further after autocrat Nicolás Maduro was declared the winner in a presidential election widely condemned as fraudulent.
Why it matters: Nearly 8 million Venezuelans have fled the crisis-stricken nation over the last decade. Maduro's re-election and the ensuing political unrest could exacerbate the refugee crisis in the final months before the U.S. election.
Zoom in: Illegal border crossings have plunged since President Biden issued an executive order cracking down on asylum.
- But polling suggests the border remains one of Vice President Kamala Harris' top vulnerabilities — and Republicans have made clear they intend to highlight her role in addressing the "root causes" of migration.
- In Denver, which Mayor Mike Johnston says has received more migrants per capita than any other city, officials are closely tracking whether the unrest in Venezuela will lead to a new surge at the border.
State of play: Protests erupted across Venezuela after Maduro was declared the victor by election authorities loyal to his regime, despite polls showing the opposition far ahead.
- Secretary of State Antony Blinken expressed "serious concerns" about the fairness of the vote, while leaders across Latin America and the rest of the world refused to recognize Maduro's victory.
- The unrest is already sparking calls for action from the Biden administration, which had previously dangled relief from oil sanctions in exchange for progress toward a free election.
- Even after the tainted vote, the Biden administration is likely to take a more restrained approach than the Trump administration did after Maduro's last sham victory in 2018. Trump backed an attempt to topple Maduro and imposed harsh sanctions after it failed.
The big picture: Republicans have long viewed Venezuela as the poster child for left-wing authoritarianism — a cautionary tale of corruption and economic collapse in the United States' own hemisphere.
- While some GOP lawmakers accused the Biden administration of "appeasing" the Maduro regime, others baselessly suggested that Democrats would impose a socialist dictatorship in the U.S.
- Three House Republicans from Florida, for example, compared President Biden's new proposal to reform the Supreme Court to Maduro's tactics for jailing his opponents and clinging to power.
- "The United States will become Venezuela if Trump is not elected," claimed one popular pro-Trump X account boosted by Elon Musk.
Between the lines: Some Trump allies tied the irregularities in Venezuela to conspiracy theories about the U.S. election, baselessly claiming that Democrats committed Maduro-like fraud in 2020 — and were preparing to do so again.
- Flashback: Former Trump lawyer Sidney Powell was sued for defamation after she falsely claimed that Dominion Voting Systems used software in the U.S. election created "at the direction" of Maduro's predecessor, the late Hugo Chávez.
The bottom line: If the post-election unrest grows — and in particular if more refugees arrive in the U.S. — Venezuela could be one of the most consequential foreign policy issues of the campaign.
Go deeper: One Venezuelan's risky search for asylum in the U.S.
