Jul 9, 2024 - Politics & Policy

Cook Political Report moves three swing states to "Lean Republican"

Erin Doherty

U.S. President Joe Biden returns to the White House with first lady Jill Biden on July 7, 2024 in Washington, DC. — President Biden returns to the White House on July 7 in Washington, D.C. Photo: Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

Former President Trump now has an edge over President Biden in the three key swing states of Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, per new ratings from the nonpartisan Cook Political Report with Amy Walter.

Why it matters: The new ratings underscore that even if Biden survives the calls for him to step down, the Democratic Party still faces a bigger challenge ahead: Winning in November.

Driving the news: Arizona, Georgia and Nevada were all moved from Toss Up to Lean Republican by the Cook Political Report. Biden won all three states by narrow margins in 2020.

Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin all remain Toss Ups, but Pennsylvania appears most vulnerable in favor of Trump, per the Cook Political Report.

Zoom out: Nationally, Biden trailed Trump by just over one point during the week before the debate, CPR writes from the RealClearPolitics head-to-head national average. Biden now trails by three points.

Between the lines: Amid the calls for Biden to step aside, Vice President Kamala Harris has emerged as a top possible successor to lead the ticket.

But Walter writes that while Harris "is not a riskier bet than Biden ... there's no guarantee she'll be a stronger one."

What to watch: One possible glimmer of hope for Democrats is that Trump is about as unpopular as both Harris and Biden and independent voters aren't necessarily running to Trump, Walter notes.

"In other words, Trump's ceiling remains somewhat firm," she writes.

Go deeper: Fact check: Biden on Morning Joe says "average voter" wants him to stay in race

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Cook Political Report moves three swing states to "Lean Republican"

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