Biden's candidacy in the prediction markets
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Speculative traders are increasingly lining up behind Vice President Kamala Harris, betting that she will prevail over President Biden for the Democratic nomination.
- They turned on Biden quickly after last week's debate debacle.
Zoom in: Odds on Harris hit 42% today on Polymarket, edging out Biden.
- FWIW — our politics colleagues say she'd be unbeatable for the nomination if Biden stepped aside.
The other side: Meanwhile, the odds of Biden dropping out of the race surged to 66% and have been rising since the debate.
The big picture: Former President Trump, the presumptive GOP pick, has a 62% chance of winning the election, according to the speculators.
- Harris' chances are 15% in that pool, just above Biden's odds of 12%.
Our thought bubble: 👆That appears to have improved slightly for Biden, from the single digits seen on July 4, per Polymarket's tweet.
BTW, there's a deliberately misspelled joke coin inspired by the VP, a la the Boden and Tremp coins, called Kamala Horris (KAMA) on Solana.
