Cryptocurrency traders bet strongly against Biden after debate
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Photo illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios. Photo: Alex Wong/Getty Images)
Blockchains make everything into a market, making it easy to place bets on almost anything, and last night the bets turned decisively further against President Biden.
Why it matters: When people express their opinions in these markets, they do it with money on the line, which, in theory, should give their opinions a different kind of weight.
- That's different from polls, in which one stranger calls another and asks what they think, and there's no consequence for the respondent if they lie.
How it works: The main place that traders with an opinion about future events go to express it is Polymarket, a prediction market.
- On Polymarket, people buy shares in the outcome of a future event. The people who get it right get a dollar for every correctly placed share. Those who get it wrong get nothing, and the money they bet is distributed among the winners.
- Shares the market view less likely, trade for less, so people who buy them stand to make a larger profit.
By the numbers: Before the debate last night, shares for Biden were trading at around 33¢. As the debate started, shares started plummeting, currently trading at 21¢.
- There's another market on the site: "Biden drops out of the presidential race?"
- Shares for YES in that market traded for 21¢ last night. Now they are up to 44¢ (more than 100% increase).
The intrigue: Former President Trump's market is up, but not nearly as much as Biden's is down.
- Before the debate, a share for Trump winning traded for around 60¢. Today? 63¢.
- Factoring in the market for Biden to quit the race though, that makes more sense.
- Among possible Democratic alternatives, California Governor Gavin Newsom saw the strongest gains last night, going from 2¢ to 7¢.
Another way to track market sentiment is with meme coins. Meme coins are tokens that represent nothing but an idea, like a cute dog, an internet meme, a turn of phrase, or — in this case — a candidate to be the commander-in-chief of the most powerful nation in the world.
- Notably, meme coins have nothing backing their value. Unlike in a prediction market, which is a share in a real pool of money, holders of meme coins won't get anything if the candidate they represent wins.
- There are several coins for the former president, but there's really only one for Biden. Biden's coin is on the blockchain Solana, and its called jeo boden (BODEN).
- Its high yesterday was $0.17. It plummeted to below half its value during the debate, currently trading around $0.08 at press time.
The latest: Mysteriously, the opposite coin to BODEN, doland tremp (TREMP), is actually down as well. It hit a high of $0.90 yesterday, but it's down to $0.65 this morning.
- There is a lot of animosity in the cryptocurrency world to the current president, which it views as overly hostile. That may be coloring their bets.
The bottom line: Regardless, traders took a marked turn against the current leader of the Democratic party's chance of another term last night.
