New York Times poll sounds fresh alarms as Biden vows to stay in race
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Former President Trump is leading President Biden 49% to 43% among likely voters in the latest New York Times/Siena College poll — a three-point swing for Trump since the debate, and his largest lead in the survey since 2015.
Why it matters: Perhaps no single poll carries more weight among Democratic elites, who have spent the last week panicking over whether Biden should withdraw from the race after his disastrous debate performance.
- The highly anticipated, post-debate poll detonated in the same hour that Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris dialed into a campaign call to try to reassure staffers about the state of Biden's candidacy.
- "I am running. I am the leader of the Democratic Party. No one is pushing me out. I've been knocked down before and counted out my whole life. When you get knocked down you get back up," a defiant Biden said on the call.
Zoom in: The poll, conducted by telephone from June 28 to July 2, found Trump's lead is even bigger — 49% to 41% — among registered voters.
- 74% of voters overall believe Biden is too old to be an effective president, up five points since before the debate.
- That includes 79% of independent voters, 59% of Democrats, and a majority of every demographic, geographic and ideological group surveyed.
The intrigue: More voters overall believe Biden should remain the nominee — but that's driven in part by Republicans, who likely see Biden as a wounded opponent.
The big picture: Biden's campaign sent a memo to House Democrats Wednesday morning — before the results were released — suggesting that the Times/Siena poll would be an "outlier," according to Politico.
- A CNN poll conducted by SSRS from June 28-30 found Trump leading Biden 49% to 43% — another grim result for the president, but unchanged from April.
- A USA Today/Suffolk University poll taken June 28-30 has Trump with a 41% to 38% lead over Biden — a shift from a May survey that found the two tied at 37%.
- A Reuters/Ipsos online poll taken July 1-2 shows Trump and Biden tied at 40% in a head-to-head contest.
What they're saying: "Both internal and outside polling confirm that the race remains incredibly tight and I agree with the Times that today's polling doesn't fundamentally change the course of the race," Biden campaign pollster Molly Murphy said in a statement.
- "President Biden continues to narrow Trump's support among independents, and we have work to do to bring home our coalition -- all the while Trump appears unable to expand his coalition."
Between the lines: Below the toplines, post-debate polls have been littered with red flags about Biden's age and mental competence.
- A CBS News/YouGov poll conducted June 28-29 found that an astonishing 72% of voters do not believe Biden has the mental and cognitive health to be president — similar results to the Times/Siena poll.
- The USA Today poll found that 41% of Democrats want Biden replaced as nominee, while 32% said the same in the Reuters poll.
The latest: A Wall Street Journal poll, also released Wednesday, found that Trump leads Biden 48% to 42% among voters nationally — and that a staggering 80% of voters believe Biden is too old to run for a second term.
What to watch: A sustained polling decline could open the floodgates for more Democrats to call for Biden to step aside, especially if the surveys suggest that Harris would perform against Trump.
- Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Texas) on Tuesday became the first Democrat in Congress to call for Biden to withdraw.
- Two vulnerable House Democrats — Reps. Jared Golden (D-Maine) and Marie Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.) — said Tuesday they expect Trump to defeat Biden.
This story has been updated with details from the new Wall Street Journal poll.
