Hurricane Beryl intensifying east of Barbados, to become "major" hurricane
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Hurricane Beryl seen via infrared satellite imagery on Saturday evening as it rapidly intensified. Photo: NOAA.
Editor's note: For the latest on Hurrican Beryl, please see here.
Hurricane Beryl, which formed Saturday evening, is rapidly intensifying after being named a tropical storm in the morning. It is breaking records for the month of June given its location in the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.
Threat level: The storm is forecast to become a major hurricane of Category 3 or above intensity before making landfall near Barbados and in the Windward Islands late Sunday night into Monday.
- The storm threatens to cause major damage from "life-threatening winds and storm surge" flooding in Barbados and the Windward Islands, where hurricane watches and warnings are in effect.
- The storm is likely to set a record for the strongest storm on record for these islands so early in the season.
- The Windward Islands include St. Lucia and Martinique, and the storm may also threaten the southern Leeward Islands, including the Virgin Islands and Antigua.
State of play: As of 11 pm ET on Saturday, Hurricane Beryl was located about 595 miles east-southeast of Barbados, moving west at 20 mph.
- Its maximum sustained winds were 85 mph.
The big picture: Its formation so far east, in what's known as the "Main Development Region" of the tropical Atlantic, this early in the season broke a record first set in 1933.
- That year is widely considered to be one of the most active Atlantic hurricane seasons on record.
- It's the second named storm in what is expected to be an extremely active season, and an unsettling omen for forecasters used to seeing the first Atlantic major hurricane form in August or early September.
Between the lines: This storm is a Cape Verde-type tropical cyclone, since it originated from a group of thunderstorms called a tropical wave that moved off the west coast of Africa.
- Typically, these types of storms don't form until August or September, when ocean waters warm sufficiently and winds in the atmosphere above this region slacken, to promote the organization of tropical waves to spin up into tropical cyclones.
Yes, but: This season is anything but normal.
The intrigue: The waters of the North Atlantic Ocean Basin are at record to near-record highs, including within the Main Development Region.
- Since tropical storms and hurricanes derive their energy from warm ocean waters, this raises the odds for early season storms in unusual locations, along with an extremely active season overall.
- In the Caribbean, the waters are as warm as they typically would be in early-to-mid September.
What's next: Computer models are in agreement that the storm will move west-northwest during the next few days, with rapid intensification continuing through 48 hours.
- The official forecast peaks the storm as a strong Category 3 storm on Monday.
- Then, it may battle some more hostile atmospheric conditions in the Caribbean, and weaken slightly.
Context: The record warm North Atlantic is part of a global spike in ocean temperatures that has gone on for more than a year, and is in large part due to human-caused climate change.
- While 2023 was the planet's warmest on record, so far, 2024 is running event hotter worldwide.
- Climate studies have shown that climate change is raising the likelihood that tropical storms and hurricanes will rapidly intensify now, compared to several decades ago, and make larger leaps in intensity as well.
- In addition, studies show they deliver more rainfall than as a result of warming sea and air temperatures.
What we're watching: The long-range path the storm takes is uncertain, as it could move west, into Central America or the Yucatan Peninsula. It also may swing further north, affecting Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.
- Whether it threads the needle between land areas to enter the bathtub-warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico also remains to be seen.
