Democrats may want to replace Biden, but it’s his call

The big picture: Biden already has almost all of the pledged delegates at the Democratic National Convention because of state primaries he has won. Those delegates must vote for Biden on the first ballot unless he withdraws beforehand.

• Democrats plan to undergo their formal nominating process weeks before their Aug. 19 convention, so new candidates would have to emerge before that virtual roll call.
• To win the Democratic nomination on the first ballot, a candidate needs a simple majority of the estimated 3,933 pledged delegates. Biden has well surpassed that threshold.

Reality check: It's incredibly unlikely that Biden agrees to step aside as the Democratic candidate.

The intrigue: Biden's performance on the debate stage Thursday sent alarms blaring through Democratic circles after he stumbled and gave meandering answers.

• It was the first time that there has ever been a debate before the convention, which makes the idea of swapping Biden out for another candidate more feasible logistically than if he was already formally nominated.

Between the lines: If Biden were to drop out after the convention, the DNC could still vote for a replacement nominee, according to its bylaws.

• Even then, the DNC would be up against rapidly approaching state deadlines to get on the ballot.
• Nearly half of the states have an August deadline, with South Dakota and California — on Aug, 13 and 14, respectively — among the first, according to Ballotpedia.

Editor's note: This story has been corrected to show that the Democratic National Convention begins Aug. 19 (not Aug. 9).

More from Axios:

• Undecided voter focus group leans toward Trump after debate
• "The Joe Biden I know": Harris delivers fiery defense of president
• Debate format plays to Trump's strengths: Lies unchallenged, Biden uninterrupted