More than half of Americans think the U.S. is in a recession. It's not.
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More than half of Americans — 56% — mistakenly believe the U.S. is currently in a recession and that Biden is responsible for a worsening economy, according to a stunning new poll conducted by Harris for The Guardian.
Why it matters: The economy is actually in good shape and there's no recession. But misperceptions like this are a huge political challenge for President Biden and an advantage for former President Trump as they vie for second terms.
Reality check: It can be difficult to know if a recession is actually happening — it's a call typically made after the fact by the National Bureau of Economic Research. (The NBER called the 2008 recession months after most people believed we were in one.)
- In order for there to be a recession, there typically needs to be a significant decline in economic activity.
- That's not the case now. The U.S. economy, as measured by GDP, is growing.
The big picture: It looks like inflation and the higher cost of living — indicators not typically part of the recession call by the NBER — could be shaping Americans' views.
- 70% of Americans said that cost of living is their biggest economic concern, followed by inflation at 68%.
- Two-thirds of Americans, including 65% of Democrats, report it's difficult to be happy about positive economic news when they feel financially squeezed each month.
- While the rate of inflation has slowed since its 2022 highs, it is still higher than most Americans are used to — and prices are up a great deal from 2019.
Zoom in: 55% of Americans wrongly believe the U.S. economy is shrinking this year rather than growing.
- 49% believe the S&P 500 is down for the year (it's up).
- Figuring out the right answers is tough because 64% of Americans say they don't know who to trust when it comes to learning about the economy. And that number is relatively bipartisan.
- Even if the information on the economy is reported correctly, 62% of Americans think the economy is worse than the media makes it out to be.
The bottom line: "Americans have perception gaps around the economy," Jacklyn Cooney, a research manager at Harris, tells Axios.
