Exclusive data: Trump lowers his own social media punch
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Former President Trump has curtailed the reach of his campaign message by not returning to X, according to an Axios analysis.
Why it matters: Presidential candidates don't typically choose to be heard by fewer people.
The big picture: Trump's engagement on Twitter, as measured by likes and retweets, was large and growing until he was booted from the platform then known as Twitter in the aftermath of Jan. 6.
- His engagement on Truth Social is much smaller — and actually shrinking.
By the numbers: Trump averaged nearly 96,000 likes per original tweet in the month of November between 2016 and 2020, including an average of 206,000 in Nov. 2020.
- He averaged less than 24,000 likes per post on Truth Social in Nov. 2022. The figure fell below 18,000 last month.
- It's the same trendline for retweets/reposts, per the Axios analysis: Trump received nearly 13 times more amplification in his final November on Twitter than he did last month on Truth Social.
What they're saying: Steven Cheung, the Trump campaign's communications director, told Axios: "Truth Social is hot as a pistol, as evidenced by all the reporters who have turned on notifications for his posts and constantly share on other sites."
- "It's the only place, aside from speeches and interviews, where the American people can get President Trump's message directly from him."
The bottom line: Trump's poll numbers have been rising as his social media engagement has fallen, and that may not be an accident.
