Record warm and snowless Christmas on tap for Midwest, East
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Map showing temperature departures from average forecast for Dec. 24. Image: Weatherbell.com
Forget the chance of a white Christmas in the Midwest and much of the East this year. Instead, record warmth is on tap.
The big picture: Mild air is flowing across the Lower 48 states as a result of an extremely strong, west-to-east jet stream flowing across the Pacific Ocean. This feature is connected to a strong El Niño in the tropical Pacific.
- The jet stream configuration, which influences how storm systems form and move, is preventing frigid, Arctic air from diving south out of Canada as is more typical at this time of year.
- Instead, temperatures from Dallas to Minneapolis, and north into Canada, are likely to range from 20 to 35 degrees above average during Christmas week. Temperature records, particularly overnight lows, could be smashed by 5 to 10 degrees or more, an unusual margin at any time of year.
- Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota are likely to see the warmest conditions relative to average.
Zoom in: The record warmth will be extremely noticeable to residents in the far northern reaches of the U.S. One of the most reliable regions for a white Christmas is far northern Minnesota and Wisconsin, but this year, even this part of the U.S. is likely to feature bare ground.
- "This will likely be the first time on record that much of northern Minnesota has not seen a white Christmas," wrote Paul Huttner on Wednesday, a meteorologist for Minnesota Public Radio.
- In Minneapolis and Chicago, warm temperature records may be set on both Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.
- Residents of many Midwestern cities are likely to wake up to bare ground and temperatures in the low 40s on Christmas morning, according to current forecasts. For many, rain could be falling as well.
- These states are typically some of the coldest and snowiest in the U.S. at this time of year, outside of the Rocky Mountains.
Context: The record warmth is tied to three key factors. First, there's the Pacific jet stream feature, which is pushing relatively mild, moisture-rich air into Canada and the northern U.S.
- There is also a storm system spinning over central and southern California, bringing flooding rains there. It is also helping to move mild air into areas out ahead of it.
- Human-caused climate change is in the mix too, since the long-term increase in average temperatures makes setting warm temperature records easier.
- According to the research and communications nonprofit Climate Central, temperatures are not expected to drop below 32°F between Dec. 21 and Dec. 25 across Illinois, most of Iowa and parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan.
The intrigue: According to Climate Central's Climate Shift Index, the record warmth will be at least twice as likely in today's climate compared to the preindustrial era, which lacked the buildup of planet-warming greenhouse gases we see today.
Between the lines: There is a dearth of snow cover across the U.S. and in North America, as well.
- The 14.3% of snow cover in the Lower 48 states is the lowest amount since such data collection began in 2003.
- The lack of snow cover in the U.S. and in Canada is preventing cold air masses from forming, since snow-covered ground tends to chill the air more than bare ground.
- This could serve as an impediment to major snowstorms in the Midwest and East Coast of the U.S. until mid-winter.
What's next: There are signs that a broad-scale weather pattern shift may take place in early-to-mid January, which could bring colder and snowier conditions to parts of Canada and the U.S.
