Cook Political Report names 3 wild cards for winning the House in 2024
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) hands the gavel to Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-L.A.) on Oct. 25 in Washington, D.C. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
Democrats may have a slight edge over Republicans in the fight to win the House in 2024, according to new analysis from the nonpartisan Cook Political Report with Amy Walter.
Why it matters: Democrats need to flip five House seats to reclaim control of the House in 2024, and it could come down to three wild card factors.
- There are a number of redistricting fights playing out in state courts over the next few months that could "yield a small handful of seats for either party or no net change," the Cook Political Report's Dave Wasserman writes.
- Rep. Kevin McCarthy's (R-Calif.) historic ouster as House speaker may shake up House GOP recruitment efforts, particularly without his huge fundraising advantage.
- Finally, how many voters turn out to to cast their vote for the presidential election could lead to down-ballot impacts — which, in a razor thin fight, could tilt the scale.
Zoom in: There are 18 vulnerable Republicans representing Biden 2020 districts, compared to five vulnerable Democrats representing Trump districts.
- The Cook Political Report also released five new race changes, three that favor Democrats and two that favor Republicans.
- House control hasn't flipped during a presidential cycle since 1952, according to the Cook Political Report.
Zoom out: In the fight over the Senate, Democrats are defending three states that Trump carried in 2020.
- Republicans need to net just two seats to take control of the chamber as Democrats face a historically difficult map, increasing the possibility of a divided Congress.
Go deeper: Analysis: Senate tilting red, House blue for 2024