Updated Aug 15, 2023 - Energy & Environment

Earth's record hot July boosts odds 2023 will be the warmest year

Global mean July temperature anomalies
Data: NASA; Chart: Axios Visuals

Three temperature tracking centers — NOAA, NASA and Berkeley Earth, came out with their July temperature reports Monday.

Why it matters: The results, as depicted above, are stark. The data sheds new insights into where 2023 may rank on the list of the globe's warmest years.

Zoom in: In June, NOAA gave a 20.2% chance that 2023 would set a record for the warmest year in its data set. That has more than doubled one month later, to 46.8%.

  • There is now a greater than 99.5% chance that 2023 will be a top 5 year in warming record books.

Between the lines: This is significant since it won't be until 2024 that the global increase in average temperatures from the incipient El Niño event is fully felt.

  • Using independent methods, Berkeley Earth is calling for a 99% chance of a warmest year during 2023.

What they're saying: "We've now seen 47 consecutive Julys that are above the 20th century average and 533 consecutive months above the 20th century average," said NOAA chief scientist Sarah Kapnick during a media briefing.

  • "We're anticipating that not only is 2023 going to be exceptionally warm and possibly a record warm year, but we anticipate that 2024 will be warmer still," said NASA climate scientist Gavin Schmidt.
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