Earth's record hot July boosts odds 2023 will be the warmest year
Why it matters: The results, as depicted above, are stark. The data sheds new insights into where 2023 may rank on the list of the globe's warmest years.
Zoom in: In June, NOAA gave a 20.2% chance that 2023 would set a record for the warmest year in its data set. That has more than doubled one month later, to 46.8%.
- There is now a greater than 99.5% chance that 2023 will be a top 5 year in warming record books.
Between the lines: This is significant since it won't be until 2024 that the global increase in average temperatures from the incipient El Niño event is fully felt.
- Using independent methods, Berkeley Earth is calling for a 99% chance of a warmest year during 2023.
What they're saying: "We've now seen 47 consecutive Julys that are above the 20th century average and 533 consecutive months above the 20th century average," said NOAA chief scientist Sarah Kapnick during a media briefing.
- "We're anticipating that not only is 2023 going to be exceptionally warm and possibly a record warm year, but we anticipate that 2024 will be warmer still," said NASA climate scientist Gavin Schmidt.