Jul 13, 2023 - Politics & Policy

Charted: GOP made inroads with women, Hispanic voters in midterms

Share of Americans who said they voted Republican in recent midterm elections
Data: Pew Research Center; Note: The sample size for Hispanic men was low, at 89 people; Chart: Axios Visuals

Republicans made significant gains with women and Hispanic voters in last year's midterm elections, despite falling short of their expected "red wave," according to a new report on validated general election voters.

Why it matters: Turnout — not voters switching parties — was the biggest factor driving GOP gains. Still, Republicans' slow, steady progress in winning over these voting blocs is raising alarms for Democrats.

Between the lines: 39% of Hispanic voters supported Republicans last November, compared to 25% in the 2018 midterms, according to the Pew Research Center data.

  • But a major factor behind that shift was the lack of turnout for Democrats: 37% of the Hispanic voters who cast ballots in 2018 — a bloc that overwhelmingly tilted Democratic — did not turn out in 2022.
  • Republicans' gains among Hispanic voters took place in a year when former President Trump was not on the ballot, though many of his endorsed candidates were.

Zoom in: The polling also shows Black Americans firmly committed to the Democratic Party, despite other demographic groups moving right.

  • In the past three elections, Black voters have not voted for Republicans more than 8% of the time, the data shows.
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