Summer movie season could heat up box office
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This year's summer box office will look an awful lot like the pre-COVID days of 2019 — or even 1989, for fans of Michael Keaton's "Batman."
Why it matters: The movie theater business has bounced back in 2023, but the next few months will tell us just how close the box office is to returning to its pre-COVID glory.
What's happening: Well-known franchises still dominate the summer landscape, and this year includes some getting dusted off after many years on the shelf.
- The summer season launched May 5 with Marvel's third "Guardian of the Galaxy" film and the 10th "Fast & Furious" installment last weekend. This weekend features Disney's latest live-action remake "The Little Mermaid," which is eyeing a $120 million debut.
- Coming soon on the summer slate are the next "Mission Impossible" film, new editions of "Transformers" and "Indiana Jones," and the return of Michael Keaton's Batman in "The Flash."
The intrigue: July 21 will feature dual openings of Warner Bros. and Mattel's "Barbie" and Christopher Nolan's "Oppenheimer."
- An actual honest-to-God box office battle!
Between the lines: This summer will test out several theories for the industry.
- Beginning with whether last year's lackluster performance was due to a lack of available movies.
- For instance, "The Little Mermaid" competed with four other films last weekend: Gerard Butler's "Kandahar," Robert DeNiro's "About My Father," Bert Kreischer's "The Machine" and A24's latest film, "You Hurt My Feelings," which stars Julia Louis-Dreyfus and was a favorite at Sundance.
- "The Little Mermaid" brought in $117.5 million domestically over the long weekend — the fifth-highest Memorial Day weekend opening, according to Comscore.
Also, folks will watch to see if Pixar can draw big audiences again. "Lightyear" underwhelmed last year for Pixar, which may have spent the past few years training its audience to watch its films on streaming instead. "Elemental" hits theaters on June 16.
- And adult comedies such as last year's "Bros" have underperformed, as that genre has mostly been relegated to streaming. Jennifer Lawrence's "No Hard Feelings" will try to change that on June 23.
By the numbers: So far, that first theory is panning out: As major releases have returned to theaters, so have audiences.
- With more than $3.1 billion in domestic ticket sales, theaters are pacing ahead of last year by 22%.
- Compared to 2020 and 2021, which were heavily impacted by theater closures and nervous audiences, this year is pacing ahead of both of them ... combined.
Reality check: There's still a long way to go to reach the pre-COVID days.
- In the last two years before the pandemic, the domestic box office had already surpassed $4 billion by this time of the year.
Of note: Cineworld, the world's second-largest owner of movie theaters, expects to emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy in July, giving the industry more good vibes heading into the summer.
- A few months ago, it appeared as if Cineworld would be broken up. Instead, it gets a fresh start midway through summer movie season.
