Mar 13, 2023 - Politics & Policy

House GOP sketches ambitious 2024 map

Kevin McCarthy

Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

The National Republican Congressional Committee is plotting a sprawling battlefield in 2024, naming 37 Democrat-held House districts to its initial list of targets.

Why it matters: It’s an ambitious strategy in a presidential year, when House results are often closely correlated with top-of-the-ticket margins. The last three presidential elections — all close by historical standards — saw flips of six to 14 seats in the House.

  • "Whatever mind-altering drugs the folks over at the NRCC are on, I definitely want some,” one Democratic strategist quipped.

By the numbers: The target list, first reported by Politico, lists 37 districts held by Democrats "that represent prime pick-up opportunities for Republicans," according to an NRCC press release.

  • "Republicans are in the majority and on offense," said NRCC Chair Richard Hudson (R-N.C.) in a statement. "These House Democrats should be shaking in their boots."
  • The list features several members who won by double digits in 2022, including Reps. Josh Harder (D-Calif.), Sharice Davids (D-Kan.) and Dan Kildee (D-Mich.).
  • All but five of the districts voted for President Biden in 2020 — though several in Ohio and North Carolina could become more GOP-friendly in redistricting.

The other side: By contrast, House Democrats’ primary super PAC, House Majority PAC, listed 19 districts in a memo last year laying out its path back to the majority. All but three of them were won by Biden in 2020.

  • And the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has 29 House Democrats on its list of vulnerable members most in need of party resources.
  • "Déjà vu. Having learned nothing from 2022 ... the NRCC is once again targeting seats that are simply out of reach," DCCC spokesperson Tommy Garcia said in a statement.

The big picture: The NRCC’s play represents a continuation of its 2022 strategy, when it was targeting 75 seats by March of that year. Republicans ended up netting just nine seats.

  • Some big bets paid off, including in Democratic-leaning districts in New York and Oregon — blue states where surprisingly close gubernatorial races had clear trickle-down effects.
  • But a slew of Biden districts in Indiana, Rhode Island, Connecticut and elsewhere across the country proved to be money sinks.
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