Jan 10, 2023 - Economy
Barclays analysts estimate home prices could fall by another 10%
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Home prices could decline by between 4% and 10% before hitting bottom, per a new note from analysts at Barclays.
Driving the news: "The likelihood of a sharp house price correction has intensified," the authors write, emphasizing that the uncertainty in the market right now is around the trajectory of interest rates.
Why it matters: Home prices shot up like a rocket since the beginning of the pandemic — now the key question is whether they'll crash and burn, or just gently drift a bit downward.
- Home prices soared an astonishing 42% between February 2020 and their peak in June 2022. Since then prices have fallen month over month.
- "With house prices having already turned down this summer, the question now is not whether house prices will fall, but by how much," the Barclays analysts wrote.
The bottom line: Home prices have only just begun their descent from the stratosphere. All eyes are on the Fed now to determine what happens next.
